By John Sandbakken

Sunflower prices have had a nice rally since spring. Nearby prices for oil-type sunflower are up about 20% from a year ago.

Last year at this same time, ample supplies, strong deliveries by producers and a large old crop inventory kept the pipeline full at the crush plants keeping a lid on prices. That’s not the case this year as a smaller 2017 crop, coupled with smaller beginning stocks, has the industry using up stocks to meet strong demand. This positive price trend should continue through the rest of the 2017-18 marketing year.

USDA is forecasting the U.S. sunflower crop for 2018-19 at 2.08 billion pounds, down slightly from 2.17 billion in 2017-18. Most of the reduction is anticipated for non-oil type sunflower. According to USDA, farmers intend to plant 150,000 acres of non-oil-type sunflower this year, down 20% from a year ago. Assuming trend yields, the 2018 output of non-oil type sunflower could result in export demand rationing and minimal ending stocks.

A less dramatic production change is likely for oil-type sunflower, which accounts for 89% of total acreage. Based on a 25 increase for intended acreage and using a trend yield versus last year’s slightly-above-trend yields, oil-type sunflower production may decline by less than 1% in 2018-19 to 1.85 billion pounds. USDA estimates domestic crush of sunflower will undergo little change and stay close to 1.05 billion pounds this marketing year. Overall, the 2017-18 marketing year is expected to be one that will allow sunflower products the chance to maintain market share in domestic markets.

Global sunflower production in 2018-19 could increase to a record 49.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 47.2 MMT in 2017-18. Global sunflower crush is projected to grow 5 percent, in line with the growth in global demand for sunflower meal and oil. Global sunflower seed stocks at the end of 2018-19 are forecast to decline further, 22% below the 5-year average.

Worldwide sunflower meal imports are forecast to grow to 7.5 MMT, on strong demand in the European Union, North Africa and the Middle East. Sunflower oil imports are forecast up at 8.6 MMT, the second-highest on record. This reflects strong demand in India, the EU, China, North Africa and the Middle East. Despite growing global production of sunflower oil, rising consumption will keep stocks relatively tight.

Now that the South American oilseed harvest is finished, the attention of the oilseed market will shift to U.S. crop conditions and production prospects in the months ahead. New crop sunflower seed prices could see some pressure from lower prices in the soybean market during the first part of the marketing year. This can change dramatically over the course of the next few months depending upon the number of acres planted and yields achieved at harvest.

To keep up with market news and prices go to sunflowernsa.com. The NSA website is your one-stop shop to get answers to your sunflower production questions.

Sandbakken is executive director of the National Sunflower Association.