If you’re a betting person, the strongest signal for late summer and fall right now is for above-normal temperatures to return and persist. Precipitation could wind up around normal, making for a positive end to the season and a good start to harvesting. However, it’s uncertain what the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle will do. On top of that, it’s hurricane season in the tropics, and those storms are wild cards that can’t be predicted.

In this exclusive interview, Trent Ford shares how he sees late summer and fall shaping up, both for Illinois and surrounding areas. Ford is the Illinois state climatologist with the Illinois Water Survey, based at the University of Illinois.

So, trends point toward a warm fall? Yes, for now. Most of the year ran warmer than normal through June, which itself was 1 to 2 degrees F above normal. That had many crops running ahead of schedule. Then July was about 1 degree cooler than normal. That slowed things down, but it was nothing like July 1992, which was very cool. It led to a fall where corn was wetter than normal. We expect August to again be warmer than normal, and we see it continuing into September.

Is there less confidence about trends for precipitation? The signal may not be as strong, but as long as the Bermuda High stays where it is, moisture from the Gulf should flow up into the Midwest. That should supply enough moisture for occasional storms and rain events, although we don’t expect a wetter-than-normal trend.

Related:Why unusual weather hit the Midwest in July

What is happening with the ENSO cycle? Will it be a factor in Midwest weather this fall? We have more questions than answers. Overall, climatologists say there is a 70% chance that La Niña, the cool phase, will develop by October. Currently, we are in the neutral phase, following an El Niño, the warm phase, which ended this spring.

However, right now, we don’t know when La Niña will develop. We also don’t know when it will end. And even if it develops, we don’t know if it will have an impact on weather trends here in the Midwest. Sometimes we see a La Niña develop, but there is no significant impact here. Historically, a La Niña often sets up a mild winter in the Midwest, but we just do not know how it will play out.

Do we have any indication of how tropical storms might impact Midwest weather this fall? No. The impact of tropical storms on weather in the Midwest is strictly a wild card. If one develops and its influence is felt here at key times this fall, then all bets are off. All we know for sure is that September and October are key months for hurricanes. Beryl developed extremely early.

We also know that it is not possible to predict when they will develop, and impossible to predict how they will track, even a few hours ahead of time. All we can do is wait and watch.