Growing conditions are becoming more variable across the Midwest, with dry spells followed by downpours. Trent Ford, Illinois state climatologist, says farmers should expect more “flash droughts” in the future. But what exactly does that mean? Prairie Farmer sat down with Ford for answers.

What is a flash drought? The main difference between a flash drought and a typical drought is how quickly conditions intensify. A flash drought comes on in a matter of weeks, reducing the amount of time available for preparation. In a normal drought, we’ll see two or three months with below-normal rainfall and can get ahead of communication and mitigative actions for agricultural and ecological purposes.

What conditions cause a flash drought? In Illinois, it’s very unlikely to have a flash drought that’s just caused by low precipitation. It’s normally a one-two punch of little rain, high temperatures, strong winds and, in some cases, low humidity that adds up to really high evaporative demand. When we’re losing a lot of water through evaporation and transpiration without getting replenished from rainfall, it can deplete soil, water and resources rather quickly.

When was Illinois’ last flash drought? Last year was a good example of a flash drought. We had a fairly wet planting season and one of the driest Junes on record. There was an area across north-central Illinois that went from no drought on Memorial Day to severe drought by mid-June, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Fortunately, we ended up getting a good amount of rain in July and it was a bit cooler, so a good crop was made.

This year before Hurricane Beryl brought heavy rains to Illinois, there were areas of the state approaching flash drought.

NOT JUST RAIN: Flash droughts aren’t caused solely by lack of rain. In Illinois, it’s a one-two punch of little rain plus high temps, strong winds or low humidity.

Does a flash drought always impact the crop? It’s important to note that we could have a flash drought and, depending on the crop condition, growth stage, time of the season, disease pressure or pest pressure, we may not necessarily see large impacts. When crops are planted in fairly dry conditions and can establish a well-formed and deep rooting system, the plant can access water — even in drought.

In conditions like this year where the seed was planted in wet soil that dries out fairly quickly in June, root development is not great. As a result, when the soils dry out because of a flash drought, water table levels could drop below that level of where roots can really tap into it. Those conditions coupled with rapid high temps and low rainfall over critical growing stages is when a flash drought really causes problems.

Can experts forecast a flash drought? Drought in general is a real challenge for forecasting at actionable timescales. What I’d really like is to have an accurate prediction of flash drought at seasonal timescales. On April 1, it would be helpful to have a flash drought prediction for when folks are thinking about planting, water allocations, specialty crops, investing in fungicide or grazing allocations for livestock.

The issue is that drivers of drought are really complex and challenging to predict. It’s certainly being worked on, with hopes of really significant advancements in drought prediction and communication in the next few decades.

Are flash droughts becoming more common? The predominant research on flash drought says yes. Flash droughts will be more common in the future across the Midwest because of warmer summers, springs and falls — all with higher evaporation rates. When you look at the projections from climate models for the next 25 years, summer precipitation is not largely projected to decrease. It is, however, becoming more variable, as we continue to see really intense precipitation events followed by longer periods with little to no precipitation.