Before we look ahead to 2021, let us look at how the 2020 growing season turned out.

The past growing season got off to a good start, and the crop developed ahead of the five-year average throughout the year with little disease or insect pressure. Harvest started two weeks earlier than normal and remained at or ahead of the five-year average in all states.

Yield for the most part was well above average, with seeds of excellent quality going into the bin. This was in stark contrast to the 2019 growing season, which was one of the most difficult many producers could remember in much of the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota.

Production estimates

In October, USDA released its first production estimate of the 2020 sunflower crop. It pegged 2020 sunflower production at 2.81 billion pounds, up 44% from the revised 2019 production of 1.96 billion pounds.

The yield forecast for all sunflower types, at 1,730 pounds per acre, was 170 pounds higher than last year’s yield and would be just 1 pound less than the record high average yield for the U.S., if realized. USDA will release its next production estimate in January.

No estimates are out yet on 2021 oil-type sunflower acres, but industry analysts believe that acres will increase given the interest they are hearing from producers. Based on historical usage, an increase in acres of 10% to 15% in 2021 can easily be added, given current demand, without impacting present prices to a great degree.

Oil market pays

Sunflower oil consumption in the U.S. has grown 5% to 10% in each of the last three years. With that trend showing no sign of slowing down, the sunflower market should be aggressive in 2021 to get acres to replenish stocks and meet demand.

As of this writing, crushers in the Northern Plains are offering both 2021 cash and act of God (AOG) contracts for NuSun and high-oleic sunflower. Cash NuSun prices are around $18.75, with AOG at $18.25 to $18.45 per cwt. High-oleic cash prices are $18.80 to $19, with AOG at $18.50 per cwt. In the High Plains, NuSun AOG contracts are at $18.70, with high-oleic sunflower at $19.70 per cwt.

Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflower.

Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Considering that oil premiums are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%, this pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt. The AOG $18.45 contract increases to $20.30, and the cash $19.00 contract moves up to $20.90.

Time to add acres

If you have not considered growing sunflower for a few years, take another look — you’ll be surprised how this crop’s genetics have changed.

As you prepare your crop budgets for this year, reconsider sunflower. You might be looking at your most profitable crop in 2021.

To talk to confection and oil sunflower buyers about contracting opportunities check out sunflowernsa.com.

Sandbakken is the executive director for the National Sunflower Association. He writes from Mandan, N.D.