In October, USDA released its first production estimate for the 2022 sunflower crop, pegging production at 2.91 billion pounds, up 53% from the revised 2021 production of 1.91 billion pounds.

USDA added 2.3 million pounds to 2021 oil sunflower production but left non-oil type production unchanged from last year. Acreage updates were made in several states. Area planted, at 1.69 million acres, is up 1% from the June estimate and up 31% from last year.

Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.63 million acres, up 2% from the June forecast and up 31% from 2021.

The October yield forecast, at 1,782 pounds per acre, is 253 pounds higher than last year’s drought reduced yield and will be the second highest on record for the U.S., if realized. Higher yields are expected in Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota compared with last year, with decreases expected in California, Colorado, Kansas and Texas. Severe to extreme drought conditions were prevalent throughout the High Plains states.

Potential record highs, lows

The forecasted production in North Dakota, the leading sunflower producing state this year, is 1.3 billion pounds, an increase of 70% from 2021. Compared with last year, the average yield forecast of 1,846 pounds per acre in North Dakota is up 265 pounds.

In South Dakota, the average yield is forecast at 1,912 pounds per acre, up 280 pounds from last year. The average yield in both North Dakota and South Dakota will be the second highest on record, if realized.

In contrast, the average yield in California, at 900 pounds per acre, will be a record low, if realized. The next estimates will be released in early January.

In its old-crop sunflower seed stocks report, USDA pegged old-crop sunflower stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 at 295 million pounds, down 25% from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 45.5 million pounds, and off-farm stocks totaled 249.3 million pounds.

Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed are 223 million pounds. Of this total, 41.4 million pounds are on-farm stocks, and 181.7 million pounds are off-farm stocks.

Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 71.7 million pounds, with 4.1 million pounds stored on the farm and 67.6 million pounds stored off the farm. Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed were 26% lower than last year at this time and in line with trade expectations. Non-oil stocks were down 24% from last year and also in line with industry estimates.

The competition for 2023 acres has started. As of this writing, crushers are offering new-crop contracts with cash NuSun contracts at $25.75 to $25.90, and Act of God contracts are at $24.90.

High-oleic cash contracts are at $26.75 to $27.15, with AOG contracts between $26.15 and $26.50. Oil premiums are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. This pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt.

To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com. Follow us on Twitter @NatlSunflower.

Sandbakken is the Executive Director of the National Sunflower Association, and writes from Mandan, N.D.