In October, the USDA released its first production estimate for the 2024 sunflower crop, pegging production at 1.3 billion pounds, down 42% from the revised 2023 production of 2.26 billion pounds.

The USDA cut 3.64 million pounds from 2023 oil sunflower production and 2.19 million pounds from non-oil-type production from last year. Acreage updates were made in several states. Area planted, at 720,000 acres, is down 20% from the June estimate and down 45% from last year.

Sunflower growers expect to harvest 691,000 acres, down 20% from the June forecast and down 45% from 2023.

Forecasted trends

The October yield forecast, at 1,889 pounds per acre, is 102 pounds higher than last year’s yield and will represent the highest on record for the U.S., if realized. Higher yields are expected in California, Kansas, South Dakota and Texas compared with last year, with decreases expected in Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska and North Dakota.

The forecasted production in North Dakota, the leading sunflower-producing state this year, is 591 million pounds, a decrease of 47% from 2023. Compared with last year, the average yield forecast of 1,997 pounds per acre in North Dakota is down only 1 pound.

In South Dakota, the average yield is forecast at 1,998 pounds per acre, up 288 pounds from last year. The yield forecast in South Dakota will be the highest on record if realized. The next yield and production estimates will be released in early January.

Related:Oil-type sunflower acres drop almost 50%

In its old crop sunflower seed stocks report, the USDA pegged old crop sunflower stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 at 575.3 million pounds, up 57% from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 139.1 million pounds, and off-farm stocks totaled 436.2 million pounds.

Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed are 507 million pounds; of this total, 133.7 million pounds are on-farm stocks, and 373.3 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 68.3 million pounds, with 5.3 million pounds stored on the farm and 63 million pounds stored off the farm.

Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed were 49% higher than last year and in line with trade expectations. Non-oil stocks were up 166% from last year and also in line with industry estimates.

As of this mid-October writing, crushers are offering 2025 new crop cash high-oleic contracts at about $21 per cwt., with Act of God (AOG) contracts at $20.50. Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflower.

Sunflower is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content higher than 40%. Consider oil premiums that are offered at the crush plants on oil content higher than 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. This pushes a contract with 45% oil content to a gross return 10% higher per cwt.

Related:3 states score high on sunflower condition

The AOG $20.50 contract increases to $22.55, and the cash $21 contract moves up to $23.10. To keep up with price movement, go to www.sunflowernsa.com. Follow us on X @NatlSunflower.