Dakota Farmer

Sunflower Extra: Drought is partly to blame for 36% decrease from 2020.

John Sandbakken, Executive director

November 3, 2021

3 Min Read
Field of sunflowers at sunset
DECREASED PRODUCTION: USDA reports a 36% decrease in production due to drought across North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska.JordanSimeonov/Getty Images

In October, USDA released its first production estimate for the 2021 sunflower crop, pegging production at 1.90 billion pounds, down 36% from the revised 2020 production of 2.98 billion pounds.

USDA added 480,000 pounds to 2020 non-oil sunflower production but left oil-type production unchanged from last year. Area planted, at 1.28 million acres, is down 7% from the June estimate and down 26% from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.22 million acres, down 7% from the June forecast and down 27% from 2020.

Severe to extreme drought conditions were prevalent throughout the Dakotas and Minnesota this growing season. The impact of the drought showed up in USDA’s yield estimate, as the October yield forecast came in at 1,554 pounds per acre — 236 pounds lower than last year’s yield.

USDA expects lower yields in Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. On the upside, higher yields are expected in the other five major sunflower-producing states compared with last year.

The next estimates will be released in early January. Here are current statistics on some of the states:

South Dakota. The forecasted production for the leading sunflower-producing state this year is 793 million pounds, a decrease of 32% from 2020. Compared with last year, the average yield forecast in South Dakota is down 328 pounds per acre from 2020.

North Dakota. The average yield is forecast at 1,600 pounds per acre, down 272 pounds per acre from last year.

Nebraska. The average yield is forecast at 688 pounds per acre, down 441 pounds per acre from 2020.

California. The average yield at 1,489 pounds per acre will be a record high, if realized.  

Crop reports

In its old-crop sunflower seed stocks report, USDA pegged old-crop sunflower stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 at 388 million pounds, up 100% from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million pounds, and off-farm stocks totaled 320 million pounds.

Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed are 298 million pounds. Of this total, 60.3 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 238 million pounds are off-farm. Stocks of oil-type sunflower seed were 113% higher than last year at this time but in line with trade expectations

Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 89.64 million pounds, with 7.8 million pounds stored on the farm and 81.8 million pounds stored off. Non-oil stocks were up 65% from last year and also in line with industry estimates.

The competition for 2022 acres has started. As of this writing, crushers are offering new-crop contracts with cash NuSun contracts at $26.90 to $27 and Act of God contracts in a range of $26.30 to $26.50.

High-oleic cash contracts are at $27.25 to $27.40, with AOG contracts from $26.75 to $26.80. Oil premiums are offered at the crush plants on oil content above 40% at a rate of 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. This pushes a contract with 45% oil content gross return 10% higher per cwt.

To keep up with price movement, go to sunflowernsa.com.

Sandbakken is executive director of the National Sunflower Association. He writes from Bismarck, N.D.

About the Author(s)

John Sandbakken

Executive director, National Sunflower Association

John Sandbakken of Mandan, N.D., has been the executive director of the National Sunflower Association since 2012. Before his current post, he was NSA's international marketing director for 16 years.

The National Sunflower Association is a combination of United States sunflower growers and industry members. NSA is a nonprofit organization working in the areas of market development, education, production and utilization research.

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