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Feedback from the Field: Growers are struggling to digest yield prospects as heat weighs on conditions

Jacqueline Holland, Grain market analyst

August 16, 2022

8 Min Read
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Rachel Schutte

Author’s note: You can participate in the Feedback from the Field series as often as you’d like this growing season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Soybean conditions as reported in yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA dropped another percentage point through the week ending Aug. 14 to land at 58% good to excellent. The reading was in line with analyst estimates leading up to the report’s release yesterday afternoon.

About 26% of the crop has already set pods, up 12% from a week ago and 3% behind the five-year average. Surprisingly moderate temperatures this week will likely help stave off more severe heat stress for the soybean crop currently in its peak reproductive phase, especially in areas that were more susceptible to drought coming into August.

FFTF responses are increasingly pointing to declining soybean ratings, with only a handful of farmer respondents reporting good to excellent yields over the past two weeks. The rest of the over three dozen responses showcased soybean ratings in fair to excellent conditions.

081622 FFTF soybean conditions.png

“Instead of 3 and some 4 bean pods as normal, this year is predominately 2 bean pods due to drought,” one Eastern Michigan grower observed.

A grower in Minnesota on the Canadian border who had to wait out a cold spring is anxiously hoping for a late fall. “Late planted some to wet spring. Poor stands late flowering. [We are] gonna need to make it to mid-October without a frost to make a crop.”

Timely rains enjoyed by other growers across the Heartland have not been plentiful enough to keep crops in Kansas from deteriorating in the heat. “Just bone dry,” said a Northwestern Kansas soybean producer. “Only 1/4" rains every other week to keep them alive.”

In West-Central Iowa, heat stress is on the top of every producer’s mind. “Beans are turning pale. Some are dying and dropping leaves early mostly flat pods and aborting pods every day,” shared one producer in the region.

Excessive heat is causing other crop management issues. “Weed pressure from short crop is extremely challenging,” a Central Nebraska. Heat just won’t let up. [Our crops are] all irrigated. Any dryland [crop] is long gone.”

“I would guess my beans will fall an average of 17%-30% [of APH yields].”

“Many areas have beans turning yellow already,” echoed another Nebraska grower further east near Lincoln. “That's a good month early.”

Conditions aren’t any better further south into the Plains. “Very little rain in July and August,” shared a Kansas soybean producer just north of Wichita. “Insurance agent determined the beans to yield 3.0 bpa. Very little chance of rain. In a week or so they will yield 0.”

USDA forecasted 2022 soybean yields at 51.9 bpa in Friday’s Crop Production and WASDE reports. Remember – that is still an early forecast due to planting delays earlier this spring. USDA-NASS will resurvey farmers next month to determine more accurate yields.

And if the heat damage is as severe as indicated by FFTF responses, yield downgrades along with hopes for bullish price action could be in store for soybean markets.

Weather breaks?

Commodity markets had previously rallied on worries that the middle of August would see key crop growing regions in the Upper Midwest plagued by heatwaves and drought stress. While there is little doubt that drought is intensifying across pockets of the Upper Midwest, showers forecast this week for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region could help stave off severe yield losses.

The Southern Plains will also see above average chances for rain through the end of this week, which bodes favorably for winter wheat sowing in the coming weeks.

6-10 day precipitation and temperature outlook maps

More moderate temperatures are forecast in the 6-10-day NOAA outlook. Areas of the Upper Midwest could still face above average temperatures and below average chances for moisture during that time, while the Central Plains and Eastern Corn Belt are trending cooler and wetter through late next week.

While the wetter and cooler forecasts bode well for some corn and soybean crops, expect market focus to shift towards crop conditions in the Upper Midwest over the next two weeks. Soybeans are still filling pods, so any exceptionally hot and dry weather could raise market concerns about 2022 yield prospects.

Corn ratings also lose ground

Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA dipped another percentage point as scattered showers last week across the Heartland were largely offset by growing dryness in the Western Corn Belt. Through the week ending August 14, 57% of the U.S. corn crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition. The five-year average for the same reporting period stands at 64% good to excellent.

The cut was less severe than markets had been anticipating, which helped cap some of the morning’s price losses. Market watchers had been expecting the rating to fall to 56% good to excellent yesterday. USDA’s forecasts indicate that while heat stress is a problem for some parts of the country, some of the losses could be offset by great growing conditions elsewhere in the Corn Belt.

Corn condition ratings good to excellent by year

Last week’s Crop Production report saw USDA estimating 2022 U.S. corn yields at 175.4 bushels per acre, reflecting delayed planting paces last spring and heat stress in the Western Corn Belt through the summer.

Growers aren’t out of the woods yet, either. “Ears are small, lower than normal row numbers due to high temps and severe drought,” observed a Michigan corn grower. Other Feedback from the Field responses from corn growers reporting fair to very poor corn conditions over the past week reflected struggles throughout the Heartland.

Map of corn conditions based on Feedback from the field survey responses

“We have seen less than 3" of rain since the first of the year. We started out with zero sub soil since it was hot and dry last summer also and very little snow,” shared a Kansas corn producer. “We are burning up in our area. The crop has pretty much given up. Only thing left to determine is how bad is it,” echoed a farmer in Western Iowa.

A Northwest Iowa grower reported “losing yield daily” amid dry conditions. A Central Kansas producer plans on reaping some crop off of irrigated land, but little elsewhere. “Dry land corn is a disaster. Irrigated corn is off 30-40 bpa [of previous yields],” the grower calculated.

Further west in Nebraska, one producer noted that the “June heat caused a very short, stressed crop,” and made comparisons to the last major drought to plague U.S. farmers. “[It’s] worse than 2012 here. We are all irrigated [but] just couldn’t keep up.”

“Feed is scarce for cattle,” the farmer foreshadowed. “I’m not sure anyone realizes how bad it is in Nebraska.”

Even in areas where drought was not a primary concern at the start of the year, there is cause for concern. “Tip back is the worst we've seen in a long time,” lamented a grower in East-Central Illinois. “Ears are averaging 30 long, 16 around at 32,000.”

August 9 2022 drought monitor map

But in areas where rains have been timely, farmer sentiment sounds much different. A Minnesota producer reporting excellent corn conditions observed, “We have been lucky to receive rain regularly.” Another Northwest Iowa producer also commented on “timely rain!” upon reporting good corn conditions.

Crop development is slowly catching up with the five-year average benchmark even amid pockets of heat stress. Through Sunday, 62% of the crop had reached the doughing phase, up 17% from the previous week and just 1% ahead of the five-year average. Similarly, denting progress reached 16% complete as of Aug. 14, just fractions of a percentage point behind the five-year benchmark.

Spring wheat harvest ramps up as winter wheat winds down

Spring wheat conditions were reported by USDA as better than anticipated by the trade after a week of hot and dry weather in the Northern Plains. Through Sunday, 64% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition. Market analysts had been expecting that figure to come in at 63% in yesterday’s Crop Progress report.

Spring wheat harvest is ramping up in the Northern U.S., according to U.S. Wheat Associate’s latest Harvest Report. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report found 16% of the total U.S. spring wheat crop harvested as of Sunday, down from the five-year average of 31% for the same reporting period.

But harvest progress is ramping up in South Dakota, where 54% of the hard red spring wheat crop had been combined by late last week and “excellent protein levels” had been reported. Harvest progress was also accelerating in Montana. Some test cutting had been performed in Minnesota and North Dakota, but the early season delays will likely keep harvest activity from peaking for another two to three weeks.

Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest is largely winding down. USDA reported that 90% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday – still a few points behind the five-year average and two points behind pre-report trade estimates.

Hard red winter harvest is officially complete from Texas to South Dakota. “Industry sources report Montana and PNW states range from 25% to 71% complete,” U.S. Wheat Associates shared in their latest report.

Map of winter wheat harvested in U.S. based on Feedback From the Field survey responses

About the Author(s)

Jacqueline Holland

Grain market analyst, Farm Futures

Holland grew up on a dairy farm in northern Illinois. She obtained a B.S. in Finance and Agribusiness from Illinois State University where she was the president of the ISU chapter of the National Agri-Marketing Association. Holland earned an M.S. in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University where her research focused on large farm decision-making and precision crop technology. Before joining Farm Progress, Holland worked in the food manufacturing industry as a financial and operational analyst at Pilgrim's and Leprino Foods. She brings strong knowledge of large agribusiness management to weekly, monthly and daily market reports. In her free time, Holland enjoys competing in triathlons as well as hiking and cooking with her husband, Chris. She resides in the Fort Collins, CO area.

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