As Tennessee Extension, state and federal agencies continue to assess the impact Hurricane Helene had on east Tennessee agriculture, the current estimate is staggering.

Total agricultural, forestry and related industry economic losses as of Nov. 4 total $1.351 billion, according to a report released by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.

Losses could range from as low as $772 million to $1.93 billion, the report indicates. “Estimates have a large range due to limitations on data availability and uncertainty regarding the regions long term recovery.” said Aaron Smith, UT Professor and Extension economist.

The estimate includes crop losses, farm structures, fencing and non-building infrastructure, direct and indirect revenue losses, debris and damaged structure removal and long-term reclamation.

Direct and indirect loss estimates range from $300.8 million to $1.12 billion. Those include crop, inventory and revenue losses in addition to the multiplier effect as revenue circulates through local economies.

The report covers losses from nine east Tennessee counties: Carter, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hawkins, Johnson, Unicoi and Washington.

Those counties include 7,698 crops and livestock farms, 1.18 million acres of forest, 568,249 acres of pasture and hay, 28,525 acres of soybeans and corn, and 2,485 acres of other crops.

Livestock and poultry in the nine-county area include 104,184 cows, 85,337 other cattle, 6,253 goats, 6,931 sheep and 109 million broilers.

“Limited participation in the federal crop insurance and other government programs will leave many producers uncompensated for financial losses,” Smith said.

Structural loss estimates range from $191.8 million to $364.1 million. Fencing and non-building infrastructure loss estimates are $28.9 million to $40.6 million. Debris and damaged structure removal and long-term reclamation is estimated at $250 million to $420 million.

Losses and potential losses not included in the estimate include agritourism, excluding breweries, distilleries, and wineries, and damage or losses to machinery, equipment and vehicles, along with changes in revenue for agricultural producers, forestry, or supporting sectors beyond three years.

Data resources included in the report include USDA agencies: NASS (Ag census, CropScape), FSA  (Crop Acreage Data, Program Payment Data), and RMA (Crop Insurance Data). USDA, CropScape, and satellite data were the primary sources of acreage. Impact Analysis for Planning was used to assist in determining direct and indirect economic losses.

“Data were collected from multiple sources to assist in validating estimates. However, due to reporting limitations, such as some counties did not disclose census data due to privacy, and differences in categorization of land use, substantial differences across data sets were present,” according to report authors.

Other data limitations include:

The report indicates that estimates may be revised as additional data and information become available.

The data was compiled and collated by a team of agricultural economists, including David Hughes, professor and Greever Endowed Chair in Agribusiness Development, University of Tennessee; Aaron Smith, professor and Extension economist, University of Tennessee; Harry Crissy, Extension educator, Business and Community Vitality, Pennsylvania State University; and Robert J Menard, research leader I, University of Tennessee.