Rising volatility in the global food system is causing a breakdown in a system that’s already fragile. That’s the conclusion of the 2022 Global Food Security Index released today, Sept. 20. The report, produced by Economist Impact and sponsored by Corteva Agriscience, is an in-depth look at several factors impacting food production, availability and sustainability.

This is the 11th report released by Economic Impact, and it shows that when all the factors are measured, the global food system is slipping, not improving. When the report was first created in 2012, and for the first eight years, the numbers kept rising, but in 2019 they peaked. “It is clear that the development and progress of the first eight years is stalling and declining,” says Pratima Singh, policy and insights group, Economist Impact.

Singh points out that while there have been major socioeconomic shocks in 2022, the key takeaway from the report is that the food environment and the food system have been deteriorating for some time. “There is a lack of resilience,” she says. “There is much more susceptibility to vulnerability. It is quite worrying.”

The index rates food security for 113 countries based on four pillars: affordability, availability, quality and safety, and sustainability and adaptation. That fourth pillar related to sustainability was added in 2020. And for the 2022 report, each pillar was adjusted with new information. The previous reports were updated to include that information, so trend data is consistent.

For example, under affordability, agricultural trade and trade freedom were added since these can impact food costs, from rising tariffs to seeking other sources at higher costs. For availability, access to agricultural inputs was added since this weighs on producer prices and includes access to Extension services, community organizations and empowering women farmers.

Singh explains that these and other changes were made to account for the complexity and interconnectedness of the global food security system, starting at the farm.

What cuts food security?

Digging into the data and the global decline in the index, Singh shows that food affordability scores dropped globally between 2019 and 2022 after increasing in previous years. That rising food cost and the strain on governments to fund food safety-net programs hit those affordability scores in the index.

Singh says COVID-19 was also a factor since some governments had to shift spending on food safety-net programs over to health programs.

Quality and safety scores also declined. This is where countries studied have significant room for improvement on setting nutritional standards, having a national nutrition strategy, and implementing nutrition monitoring and surveillance. Almost one-third of countries studied do not have a national nutrition strategy in 2022.

Availability and sustainability continue to remain weak and contribute to softer scores too. For availability, challenges include dependency on chronic food aid and lower expenditures in agricultural research and development. Although starting from a low base, recently added measures on agricultural inputs have shown notable improvements over 11 years.

Sustainability numbers have risen as governments adopt national agricultural adaptation policies. However, there is room for improvement in boosting soil organic matter content, protecting marine biodiversity and managing agricultural water risks.

Who’s on top and bottom?

Sardar Karim, policy analyst, Economist Impact, offers a look at the top 10 and bottom 10 countries in the index. These indexes look at performance across those four pillars and aggregate the information to come up with a score. Here are the top 10 in the 2022 report:

“The average score for the top countries is 25% to 27% higher than the global average, and the strongest areas that drive those scores up include food safety-net programs, access to diversified financial products, and a political commitment to adaptation is strong as well,” Karim says. “They do have areas they can improve on, including research and development investment, irrigation infrastructure, and support for women farmers.”

Other areas where there’s room for improvement include food security agencies and production of marine biodiversity.

At the bottom of the GFSI, starting with lowest score and moving higher, are:

Karim notes that the bottom 10 have scores that are 30% to 40% lower than the global average, and every pillar has room for improvement. The weakest areas are food safety-net programs, high food costs, lack of irrigation infrastructure, poor roads and lack of nutritional standards. Six of the bottom 10 countries are in sub-Saharan Africa.

The GFSI is used by policy-makers, private companies and non-governmental agencies, and provides an in-depth, country-by-country look at performance across those four pillars.

And while it is easy to point to the war in Ukraine or rising inflation as a cause of the latest decline in the index, Singh clarifies that “what we are seeing with the impact on input prices and rising food prices, chronic food aid in more unstable and volatile markets are all long-term factors. We’re seeing more stress [to the system].”

She emphasizes the need to look at those long-term factors, including water availability, irrigation infrastructure and ways to tackle extreme weather events.

The entire report is online with the ability to not only drill down to 2022 numbers, but also look back on 11 years of data to see what’s impacting food security.

Adds Tim Glenn, executive vice president, seed business unit of Corteva Agriscience, and program sponsor: “We’re conscious of the impact on society and consumers, and we work closely with farmers around the world. Farmers are critical from a food security standpoint; they’re on the front line, and it is critical that we recognize and respect what farmers bring to the table — what farmers’ responsibilities and their roles are. And we want farmers to produce the right things, the right way, to help solve the food security issue.”

You can check out the entire report by visiting economistimpact.com/food-security-index.