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Widespread abnormally dry and drought conditions limit corn, soy and wheat ratings.

Jacqueline Holland, Grain market analyst

June 7, 2023

7 Min Read
Dry, cracking soil in corn field
Getty Images

Author’s note: Want to share your growing season progress with us? Insights can be shared by clicking this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!

Dry weather continues to build market concern about crop conditions across the Heartland, with growing heat stress mounting in the Upper Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt. Recent USDA and weather data all corroborate Farm Futures readers’ worries about growing drought conditions as peak crop development season ramps up.

Last week’s Drought Monitor update continues to show persistent drought lingering in the Central Plains, though short-term dryness is increasingly beginning to pop up in the Eastern Corn Belt. Through the week ending May 30, 50.05% of U.S. land was categorized in some sort of abnormally dry to exceptional drought rating, a 9.45% increase from the previous week, due in large part to dry weather in the Midwest.

Abnormally dry conditions in the Midwest have more than doubled in area over the past week, with drought ratings rising an eye-popping 39.19% on the week in yesterday’s data update to 66.15%. With more dry weather expected for the Eastern Corn Belt over the next couple weeks, it seems likely that figure will continue to rise.

Over the last two weeks, farmer respondents in our Feedback from the Field series have cautioned us about the lack of soil moisture around the Heartland. Corn growers shared their specific concerns below.

  • “We only had 1 1/2 inches of rain the whole month of April and 2 1/4 the month of May with little to no subsurface moisture.” – Southwestern Minnesota. For context, Minnesota usually receives nearly four inches of rain during an average month of May.

  • “We are in a very dry area of the state.” – North Central Kansas, where drought pressures have plagued the region over the past couple years and has likely inflicted long-term damage on hydrological and ecological systems.

  • “Way too dry and little chance of rain,” shared a Northern Ohio farmer. “We are as dry if not drier than the historic drought year of 1988. Prospects for rain are slim to none.”

  • “Too dry for re-emergence herbicide.” – Eastern Iowa. A moderate drought has dogged the Western portion of the state, but the recent dry spell has made drought pains felt across the entire Hawkeye state.

  • “Behind schedule and extremely dry, drought returning.” – Southeastern Minnesota.

And the data did not disappoint in this week’s Crop Progress report from USDA. Corn ratings dropped an unexpected 5% lower week-over-week, with only 64% of 2023 U.S. corn now rated in good to excellent condition as of June 4.

It was the largest single week decline in corn ratings since the August 2020 derecho.

For more historical context about corn rating slides over recent history, I highly recommend reading Reuters’ Karen Braun’s latest column. It takes a look at falling corn conditions and the subpar soybean conditions as well.

Pre-report analyst expectations had pegged the corn rating at 67% good to excellent – far more optimistic than USDA’s figure. But persistent warm and dry weather over the Corn Belt over the past week has taken a more significant toll on the young crop than the market had anticipated, paving the way for bullish price movement during Tuesday’s trading session.

Soybeans also show signs of struggling

Soybean producers are facing similar struggles amid dry soils. With some soybean crops planted later this spring – or even replanted following an early cold snap – there seems to be more signs of early crop stress for soybeans. Soybeans are typically a bit more drought-hardy than corn.

Reports from our Feedback from the Field growers are as follows:

  • “Very concerned about lack of moisture pre-planting.” – East Central Kansas

  • “Lots of seed in dry dirt on last 30% planted.” – Red River Valley in Northern Minnesota

  • “Seed laying in dry dirt. Some have swelled. By end of week with no rain they will be dead.” North Central Ohio

  • “Late planted during to weather, will need an excellent growing season to achieve historical farm averages, otherwise I would expect a reduced yield. From an overly wet April and May we have now turned dry and are in need of some rains, crop starting to show stress from lack of moisture.” – Southwestern Minnesota

USDA published its first look at 2023 soybean condition ratings on Monday, with the market once again overestimating quality ratings ahead of USDA’s weekly Crop Progress publication. Through the week ending June 4, 62% of U.S. soybean crops were rated in good to excellent condition.

Markets had been expecting USDA’s reading to come in 3% higher at 65% good to excellent, but last week’s heat and clear skies across the Midwest upended the pre-report trade expectations, ushering in positive price movement for the soy complex on Tuesday.

It was the lowest initial soybean rating published by USDA since 2008’s 57% good to excellent reading.

Dry weather keeps winter wheat concerns alive

Hard red winter wheat growers from Kansas are waiting for fields to dry down as harvest activity accelerates in Texas and Oklahoma. “Seeing a lot of destroyed acres in this area,” reports a North Central hard and soft red winter wheat producer. “We anticipate 50% and lower yields due to lack of moisture,” echoes a Central Kansas producer.

Texas and Oklahoma have reported the most harvest progress at 29% and 15% completion, respectively. Arkansas (14%) and North Carolina (8%) followed suit, though their soft red winter wheat yields are likely to be significantly more robust than in Texas and Oklahoma, where the hard red winter wheat fields that have been harvested so far are likely to yield meager crops – if they haven’t already just been baled for straw.

Dry weather in the Midwest is also raising some concerns about soft red winter wheat yield prospects, especially amid peak heading activities. “Dry during head fill,” cautioned a Northern Ohio grower.

Drought continues to hammer Eastern Washington, where one white winter wheat farmer is anticipating yield losses as the crop approaches complete heading. “Lack of moisture has made a fair crop turn poor,” the farmer shared.

Spring wheat conditions are also facing heat stress throughout the Pacific Northwest.

“Rain is really needed to make a crop,” lamented an Oregon spring wheat producer. “We will be lucky to get 10 bpa, especially if we get no rain from here on out.”

Spring wheat planting has largely wrapped up in the Northern Plains, with 93% of the crop in the ground as of June 4, up 8% from last week and perfectly in line with the five-year average. Markets had been expecting USDA’s mark to come in 1% higher ahead of yesterday’s Crop Progress report, but that sentiment underscored the fact that North Dakota has been planting at a rapid clip over the past couple weeks following a slow start due to heavy winter snowpack.

The Eastern Washington white wheat grower also produces spring wheat and echoed similar sentiments to the Oregon producer. “It was an approximately 10 bpa crop, but now it’s even lower due to lack of moisture.”

“Much needed rain has not appeared in Eastern Washington. Thunderstorms that have happened are helping a bit with subsoil moisture bMuch-neededut not in time to help crops much.”

Weather outlooks

Temperatures will likely continue to persist at seasonal averages through the rest of the week, trending in the high 80s across much of the Plains and Midwest, according to NOAA's short-range forecasts. Scattered showers are expected in the Upper Midwest throughout Wednesday, with another storm system moving into the Western Plains by the evening.

Scattered showers will persist throughout the rest of the week across the Plains and Upper Midwest, though all of those systems are likely to miss the Eastern Corn Belt, where more moisture is sorely needed to maintain crop development.

NOAA’s 6-10-day outlook is showing above average temperatures lingering along the Northern Border and into the Upper Midwest, though cooler temperatures are expected across the Plains and Eastern Corn Belt early next week.

Moisture outlooks for the Upper Midwest remain dry, which will be problematic for spring wheat as well as freshly planted corn and soybean crops. Above average chances for rain are growing for the Eastern Corn Belt, Central Plains, and Pacific Northwest through the middle of next week, which should provide some relief to dry fields in those regions.

The 8-14-day forecast is showing above average chances for heat across much of the Plains and Midwest through the middle to end of next week, with cooler temperatures expected for the West. During that time, an above average chance of showers is likely for the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Plains, and the Central Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys.

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About the Author(s)

Jacqueline Holland

Grain market analyst, Farm Futures

Holland grew up on a dairy farm in northern Illinois. She obtained a B.S. in Finance and Agribusiness from Illinois State University where she was the president of the ISU chapter of the National Agri-Marketing Association. Holland earned an M.S. in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University where her research focused on large farm decision-making and precision crop technology. Before joining Farm Progress, Holland worked in the food manufacturing industry as a financial and operational analyst at Pilgrim's and Leprino Foods. She brings strong knowledge of large agribusiness management to weekly, monthly and daily market reports. In her free time, Holland enjoys competing in triathlons as well as hiking and cooking with her husband, Chris. She resides in the Fort Collins, CO area.

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