Throughout the growing season, most of the sunflower crop has been rated as good to excellent in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. This should mean that yields will be above trend, assuming normal weather through fall and no early freeze.

The exception to this has been Colorado and Kansas, where drought has most of the crop rated in fair condition, which will likely impact yields. Overall, most market analysts are expecting U.S. sunflower yields to be near the five-year average this year.

In July, USDA issued its initial outlook for 2024 sunflower production and usage for the 2024-25 marketing year. The area planted to oil-type sunflower varieties was estimated at 765,000 acres, which is down 34% from 2023.

Better than expected

Harvested area for oil-types was expected to decrease 30% from last year to 736,500 acres. Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 133,500 acres, is down 13% from last year. Harvested area is expected to decrease 11% from last year to 126,100 acres.

Given the lower oil-type acreage, sunflower seed crush was decreased by 59 million pounds to 855 million on lower 2024 production. The other use category of nonoil and residual was lowered to 1.2 billion pounds, the lowest since the 2019-20 marketing year.

Ending stocks are forecast to decline to 228 million pounds, a 47% decrease from marketing year 2023-24. USDA will provide its updated yield and production estimates for sunflowers in October. 

Global outlook

USDA decreased global sunflower seed production for marketing year 2024-25 to 54.8 million metric tons due to lower production in Argentina, Russia and Ukraine. The Black Sea area had an extended period of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in May, June and July, causing concern for production prospects in the region.

Traders will be watching this region closely during harvest, as Russia and Ukraine are the largest sunflower producers in the world. The lower production will result in global sunflower seed ending stocks decreasing by 11% for 2024-25.

With the lower global seed supply, the 2024-25 global sunflower crush is forecasted to reach 50.9 MMT on lower crush volumes in Russia and Ukraine, slightly below 2023-24. Global sunflower oil production is expected to be 21.49 MMT.

With the lower global supply of sunflower oil, stocks are projected to be 2.6 MMT by the end of September 2025, which is down 9% from last year. This is all good news for sunflower prices moving into the new marketing year.

In preparation for harvest, producers are cleaning out storage bins, and deliveries to crush plants have been on the increase. The situation in Russia and Ukraine bears watching as they are the largest exporters of sunflower oil. The potential reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil production poses risks for global markets, and U.S. sunflower prices could be responsive to the potential production shortfalls. To keep up with price movement, visit sunflowernsa.com.