USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service issued its first 2024 Upland cotton production estimate, projecting 14.55 million bales – some 1.5 million bales below market expectations.

This first production estimate, combined with the release of the USDA Farm Service Agency’s August 12 certified acreage report, has provided much-needed insight into this year’s crop prospects.

Projection surprise

The biggest surprise was probably the sub-15 million bale projection for Upland cotton production, which was fueled by a U.S. planted acreage number that is more than 500,000 acres less than USDA’s June 30 Planted Acreage estimate and 2.5 million acres of abandonment.

(Photo by Shelley E. Huguley)

USDA FSA certified acreage data shows 10.785 million acres planted to Upland cotton in 2024. That number is likely to climb slightly higher as late acreage certifications are processed, but aligns well with NASS’s planted acreage number of 10.974 million.

Most of the difference in U.S. acreage can be attributed to fewer planted acres in Texas. Initially estimated at 6.44 million on June 30, the August FSA acreage report shows Texas producers planted approximately 5.83 million acres of Upland cotton – a difference of 450,000 acres.

Texas High Plains acres

Cotton producers on the Texas High Plains have reported 3.843 million acres planted in 2024. That’s an increase of 400,000 acres from the region’s 2023 planting total and accounts for 80% of the additional acres planted in Texas this year.

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Failed acres will play a huge role in the ultimate size of the crop at the national, state and regional levels. It is no surprise that most eyes will focus on the Texas High Plains to see how much of the area’s non-irrigated acreage ultimately makes it to harvest.

As reported in the August certified acreage report, failed acreage nationwide is relatively small, totaling only 488,599 acres through August 1 —  87% of those failed acres (423,542 acres) have been reported in the Texas High Plains region.

High Plains dryland cotton

While that number is a large portion of total U.S. failed acres to date, those 423,542 acres equate to a current abandonment rate of only 11% across the 42 counties that comprise the Texas High Plains region. Unfortunately, there is a strong indication that a significant number of the High Plains’ non-irrigated acres will end up failed due to hot and dry conditions that have persisted throughout the months of July and August this far.

In 2023 non-irrigated abandonment across the High Plains region climbed from 12% to 75% between August and the end of the season. High Plains crop conditions are somewhat better in many areas this year, so there is some hope that non-irrigated abandonment will be smaller than what was experienced in 2023. Only time will tell where things ultimately end up.

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USDA NASS has forecast Texas harvested acreage at 3.65 million indicating abandonment will eventually reach 2.3 million acres statewide.

Shawn Wade is the policy analysis and research director at Plains Cotton Growers, Inc.