What to expect from the markets this week, September 25, 2017
Market “Near Term” Snap Shot
Rice: Price action appears to be corrective
Cotton: Cautiously Bullish
Soybeans: Regaining bullish momentum, closing above $10.22 and holding implies a likely price bottom in place
Corn: Bearish with a bottoming process underway
Wheat: Holding current price levels implies a building bullish bias
10-year Treasury Yield: Sideways-Trading-Range on expectation of U.S. and Global fiscal simulative activities like corporate and individual tax relief and expectations of Fed balance sheet reduction
S. Dollar: Bearish – Possible corrective activity likely, then the door will open for a decline to 87 or lower
Oil $WTIC: Consideration now needs to be given to a near-term price floor being in place. The ongoing sideways choppy price action may be more bullish than bearish this week. The $45 to $50 trading range giving way to an upside potential of $55 or higher.
$CRB Commodity Index: Cautiously optimistic as this index builds a base to move higher
S&P 500: Primary trend remains up, but cautionary time period with momentum waning and consolidation needed
Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada: Primary trend remains up, but a cautionary time period with momentum ever so slowly declining
Feeder Cattle: Moving higher
In addition to the following “Expanded near term market outlook considerations for week of Sept. 25.”
Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click download button below
This Week’s Select Summary Considerations:
10-Year US Treasury Yield:
The 10-Year US Treasury Yield: Sideways-Trading-Range on expectation of U.S. and Global fiscal simulative activities like corporate and individual tax relief and expectations of Fed balance sheet reduction
What could move the yield lower? Demand, Economic Weakness, Event Risk Concerns, or Other Market Concerns/Factors could take the yield lower
S. Dollar Index:
Possible corrective activity likely, but once complete the door is open for a decline to 87 or lower
Given global macro considerations coupled with no significant global anomaly event moving forward this index may have some serious weakness
Unless Middle East, North Korean, European, Venezuelan or other anomaly events start to dominate market participant decisions, then we are still in search of a low for the dollar
CRB Index:
Cautiously optimistic as this index builds a base to move higher
Global government and Central Bank actual and anticipated intervention are giving every indication of bearing fruit
Bigger picture: Though dangerously spastic, global macro and growth forces in general remain supportive of the commodity sector
$WTIC Light Crude Oil:
Consideration now needs to be given to a near term price floor being in place. The ongoing sideways choppy price action likely more bullish than bearish this week. The $45 to $50 trading range giving way to an upside potential of $55 or higher.
A complex, volatile and an uncertain market that deserves a great deal of respect in a world with building economic, social, political and homeland security uncertainties
North Korea, market structure, geopolitical considerations and building possibilities of a Venezuelan civil war are just some of the supportive factors
Soybeans:
Regaining bullish momentum, closing above $10.22 and holding implies a likely price bottom in place
Given improving complex global macro forces a retest of the $9.00 area or potentially lower into the $8.35 area is becoming increasingly less likely
Corn:
Assume bearish until price action becomes more supportive of a bullish case and give consideration to prices moving to their previous 2016 lows of $3.15 or below
Long Grain Rice:
Price action appears to be corrective
Remain aware of potential near term uncertain global economic crosscurrents related to currencies, bonds, equities and commodities as they go through a rebalancing process
Cotton:
This week may determine if the bullish bias remains with a price consideration of 91 cents
Wheat:
Holding current price levels implies a building bullish bias
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF:
Primary trend remains up
A cautionary time period with momentum waning and consolidation needed
Allow price action to provide guidance
QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares:
Consolidation needed
Near term remain cautious of this index with momentum slowing
Allow price action to provide guidance
Primary trend remains up
EFA iShares ETF - Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada:
Primary trend remains up
A cautionary time period with momentum ever so slowly declining
Allow price action to provide guidance
EEM iShares ETF, Emerging Market Equities:
A cautionary time period
Allow price action to provide guidance
Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas System. E-mail: [email protected].
DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES
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