July 31, 2017

What to expect from the markets this week, July 31, 2017
Note: Click download button at the bottom of this file to see this week’s commodity analysis charts.
Market “Near Term” Snap Shot
Rice: Bullish bias remains, but corrective price action desirable
Cotton: Bottoming process underway
Soybeans: Likely consolidating before moving higher
Corn: As long as corn remains above 3.69 given global economic dynamics this market near term is more bullish than bearish
Wheat: Global macro dynamics a key consideration in not being overly bearish wheat, soybeans, corn and rice
10-year Treasury Yield: Range bound, but bullish bias or lower yield remains
S. Dollar: Near term some correction of downside move should be anticipated before moving lower
Oil $WTIC: An interesting week ahead for oil. Geopolitical considerations and building possibilities of a Venezuelan civil war moved oil prices back above 48-dollars
Commodity Index: Will global reflation efforts be enough to keep this index from revisiting previous lows? Do not rule out a revisit to previous lows, but this index is building a base to move higher
S&P 500: Prices still moving higher, but a cautionary time period
Global Equities: A cautionary time period, trend remains up
Feeder and Live Cattle: Consolidating before moving higher
In addition to the following “Expanded near Term Market Outlook Considerations for Week Beginning July 31, 2017”
Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download button.
This Week’s Select Summary Considerations:
10-Year US Treasury Yield:
Range bound, but bullish bias or lower yield remains
We enter the week with the 10 Year US Treasury Yield slightly bullish with a potentially lower yield
The larger trend remaining bullish or lower yield
Most likely Demand, Economic Weakness, Event Risk Concerns, or Other Market Concerns/Factors will take yields lower to 2 or below before significant move higher
US Dollar Index:
In search of a bottom with a near term potential of 92 and then increasingly likely lower to 87 or lower
Near term some correction of downside move should be anticipated
Bigger picture assuming no significant global anomaly event this index may have some serious weakness
CRB Index:
Will global reflation efforts be enough to keep this index from revisiting previous lows? Do not rule out a revisit to previous lows, but this index is building a base to move higher
Bigger Picture: Though spastic, global macro and growth forces in general remain supportive of the commodity sector
Between Fed off-again and on-again accommodation and/or misdirectional verbal guidance, building uncertainties surrounding fiscal, trade and regulatory policy simulative activities, the $CRB Commodity Index: a key economic indicator, has struggled
$WTIC Light Crude Oil:
An interesting week ahead for oil. Geopolitical considerations and building possibilities of a Venezuelan civil war moved oil prices back above 48-dollars
A complex, volatile and an uncertain market that deserves a great deal of respect in a world with building economic, social, political and homeland security uncertainties
Soybeans:
Likely consolidating before moving higher
Global macro forces possibly price supportive, a price move through $10.21 and holding opens the door to higher prices
Corn:
As long as corn remains above 3.69 given global economic dynamics this market near term is more bullish than bearish
Cautionary Note: Oil prices have rebounded, but sustained oil price weakness could possibly be problematic for corn prices
Long Grain Rice:
Bullish bias remains, but corrective price action desirable
This is a highly complex market with an array of factors impacting price from 2017/2018 beginning stocks; 2017 acreage, production and quality uncertainties; present underlying aggregate commodity sector dynamics; problematic global economic momentum, geopolitical uncertainties, and/or global agronomic outlook
Cotton:
Bottoming process underway
Wheat:
Global macro dynamics a key consideration in not being overly bearish wheat, soybeans, corn and rice
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF:
Prices still moving higher, but a cautionary time period
Allow price action to provide guidance
QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares:
Technology continues to perform, remain cautious
Allow price action to provide guidance
EFA iShares ETF - Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada:
A cautionary time period
Trend remains up
Allow price action to provide guidance
EEM iShares ETF, Emerging Market Equities:
A cautionary time period
Trend remains up
Allow price action to provide guidance
Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas System. E-mail: [email protected]
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