The saying goes that nobody wins trade wars. This is certainly true for U.S. cotton during the current trade war with China. In retaliation for President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, China issued a 25 percent tariff on U.S. cotton with U.S. sales to this vital export market suffering.

Bruce Atherley, executive director of Cotton Council International, notes that China accounts for one-third of total global mill use, consuming about 41 million bales per year. China doesn’t grow enough of its own cotton to meet this need, so they turn to the world market, with the United States historically being one of their favorite suppliers. In the past, the U.S. has enjoyed a 46 percent share of the export market.

Going forward, Atherley says China is expected to export 10 to 15 million bales, and the U.S. share of this could be five million bales or more if the trade war is ended and the tariffs are lifted. Atherley and others in the cotton industry agree that U.S. cotton clearly needs China as a customer.

“They like your cotton. They like U.S. cotton for its quality, its consistency and its low contamination,” Atherley said at the annual meeting of Southern Cotton Growers and Southeastern Cotton Ginners Association in Hilton Head, S.C.

The concern, Atherley stresses, is that China will turn to Brazilian and West African cotton and this could harm U.S. sales to China for the long-term. U.S. cotton desperately needs for the trade war to end and for the tariffs to be removed to take advantage of the Chinese market, which is expected to see continued growth.

“The China situation is very complicated. Yes, they do cheat. Yes, they do steal intellectual property. But just from a pure cotton perspective, we need China. China is our most efficient market to ship to in the world, so it keeps our costs down. They’re going to buy a lot of cotton going forward,” Atherley says.

The United States has a global reputation for producing high quality cotton. Mills in China and other nations will buy our cotton because of its quality and reliability, if trade impediments are taken away.