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More trimming of U.S. cotton crop

Cotton Spin: While the abandonment rate remained the same, USDA cut yield per harvested acre across nine states in their September WASDE report. Learn more, plus other adjustments reflected in this week's report.

John Robinson, Extension economist, cotton marketing

September 17, 2024

2 Min Read
Cotton Spin

USDA’s September WASDE showed mixed adjustments to the 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet compared to the prior month (third column of numbers in Table 1 below). Beginning stocks were unchanged, as were 2024 planted and harvested acres. Thus, the abandonment rate remained at 22%. 

However, USDA cut yield per harvested acre from 840 in August to 807 pounds in September. This resulted in a 596,000-bale reduction in forecasted U.S. production, month over month. This reduction was spread over nine states, led by Texas (-404,000), Georgia (-100,000) and Oklahoma (-80,000).  On the demand side, U.S. exports were cut two million bales, month over month, because of fewer exportable surpluses. 

The bottom line of these mixed adjustments was a net 500,000 cut in U.S. ending stocks, to 4.0 million. The monthly adjustment would historically be modestly price supportive while the resulting level is probably neutral.

Similarly, USDA’s month-over-month adjustments in the September WASDE report reflected more tightening of 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet. On the supply side, beginning stocks were cut 170,000 bales, mostly in India (-400,000), and partially offset by Pakistan (+200,000). World production was lowered 1.2 million bales, mostly in the U.S. (-600,000), India (-500,000) and West Africa (-110,000), and partially offset by China (+300,000). 

Related:Texas farmers set new PB with 5-plus bale cotton

The world imports categories continued to be cut with 640,000 fewer bales compared to last month, mostly in China (-500,000) and Vietnam (-200,000), and partially offset by India (+300,000).

On the demand side, world exports were reduced by 550,000 bales month over month, mostly in the U.S. (-200,000), India (-200,000), and West Africa (-130,000). World domestic use was also cut 460,000 bales, month over month, mostly in Vietnam (-200,000), Turkey (-100,000) and Bangladesh (-100,000).  

The supply side cuts of roughly two million bales dominated the roughly million bale reduction in demand, resulting in a 1.12 bale reduction in world-ending stocks, which is historically bullish in both the adjustment and the resulting level.

For additional thoughts on these and other cotton marketing topics, please visit my weekly on-line newsletter at http://agrilife.org/cottonmarketing/.

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About the Author

John Robinson

Extension economist, cotton marketing, Texas AgriLife Extension

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