With Mid-South cotton acres increasing in 2018, will next year see even more planted? It sure looks that way.

“Heading into 2019, the biggest thing is the indications are our acreage will be up substantially,” says Darrin Dodds, Mississippi State University Extension cotton specialist. “By and large, everyone I’ve spoken with is talking about planting more cotton. Of course, markets could change that, but as of today, that’s what will happen.

“I think that will be statewide. The general consensus is there will be more cotton, period.”

Bill Robertson, Arkansas Extension cotton specialist, agrees. “Soybean farmers are in a bad situation and looking to do something different. That’s why I think Arkansas’ cotton acres could see a jump of 10 to 25 percent. A 25 percent spike would be 600,000 acres.

“Honestly, that’s a scary proposition and I’m hoping for less. Look at how long it has taken us to get this year’s crop out. I still have a cotton test in the field in southwest Arkansas. This year, a lot of farmers told me, ‘I’d plant a lot more cotton if I had more picker power. I just don’t have the equipment to plant all the acres I want.’ I guess we should already get started praying for a dry fall next year. Farmers are telling me the popular cotton varieties are already getting short.”

Wet harvest

Without question, says Dodds, “the biggest challenge our producers faced this year was harvest. That was simply because of rain. A portion of the crop was harvested before the rains set in. But after that, harvest was really choppy because the waves of rain started coming through.

“The rains weren’t devastating to the crop in most cases. But it hurt a bit — I’ve had guys tell me it cost them 100 to 150 pounds. USDA has Mississippi’s yield predication at 1,340 pound, which is pretty dang good.”

Because of the rain, says Dodds, “not a tremendous amount of land preparation for cotton was achieved, either. That means there will have to be a fair amount of land prep in the spring. We cut some ruts in fields to get the crop out. The downstream effects of all this fall rain will be around until we put the planters in the fields next year.”

In east Arkansas “this year was definitely the most challenging I’ve had,” says Pace Hindsley, Marvell, Ark.-area farmer and member of the Cotton Board. “That goes from getting the cotton planted to, of course, getting it out. The rains just won’t stop.”

When Hindsley was able to harvest, “the yields turned out to be very, very good in a lot of the irrigated fields. In some fields, though, yields were poorer — but that wasn’t the case overall. I think it’s fair to say across most of Arkansas it isn’t uncommon to hear 1,300- to 1,600-pound yields.”

For 2019, Hindsley “wouldn’t be surprised to see a 15 to 25 percent spike in cotton acres. We’re limited based on how much harvesting equipment is available. John Deere is only producing X amount of pickers and farmers can’t buy equipment when they need it.

“With the quality issues we had in the Mid-South with the rains, most of the next crop’s seed will be coming from the West. That means, I suspect, there will be a shortage of some varieties.”

Ginning

What about ginning?

“2018 harvest conditions notwithstanding, I think in 2019 folks will go back into cotton at least at current acreage levels or perhaps more,” says Tim Price, head of the Southern Cotton Ginners Association. “That said, there are legitimate concerns that have to do with the long-term strength and vision of the industry. In order to increase production and sustain that requires prices and our ability to handle increases.

“We’ve seen huge increases this year and it’s put a strain in many places on the ginning sector. That strain hasn’t come just from all the wet cotton we’ve been challenged by but sheer capacity. We must gin safely, with quality in mind, including a special attention to reducing, if not eliminating, contamination.”

Ginners’ chief struggle this year, says Price, “has been light spot. Today, as we speak, it’s about to rain again. We know sunshine can bleach out cotton that has light spot. The problem is guys can’t wait for the sunshine to do that — the rains are too frequent. They’d rather have some color and in the gin yard than wait any longer in the field. There are acres and acres that haven’t been harvested yet.

“A few years ago, who would have imagined we’d be straining in some areas? In this region, we’re blessed to be able to grow a diversity of crops. How do you balance all that? We must keep a long-term perspective on maintaining the cotton infrastructure even through years when it seems the crop is down. The volume of cotton coming into gins this year shows that. I think there will be a lot of people who will be thinking about their long-term investments in cotton after this year.”

Plans, rumblings

Back in Mississippi, Dodds says there are “rumblings that cotton folks are already looking for pickers and equipment. I don’t know if that will hinder acreage, though.

“Some gins have already wrapped up the season. But some are going to have to gin well into next year. If acres go up in 2019 and yields hold steady, that will push ginning even later. I have heard some concerns — nothing terribly loud — from the ginning community. How many bales can we handle? How do we get it here and how do we store it?”

Despite the fall rains, Mississippi has harvested “a very, very respectable crop. If you look at where our yield numbers have been over the last seven years, Mississippi has averaged over 1,000 pounds. All the years prior, we only averaged over 1,000 pounds once. In my opinion, we’ve moved into a new era.”

Having accomplished that, though, has raised expectations. “We no longer expect an 1,100-pound crop in the Delta but 1,300 or 1,500,” says Dodds. “Some of that is driven by costs, of course. Pickers are expensive, land costs are up, the cost of management is up. We have to make more yield to maintain or reap some profitability.”

Robertson says in upcoming winter meetings he’ll “talk about nitrogen rates and managing for earliness. Before this year, we’ve had dry falls and have gotten away with pushing nitrogen and trying to improve yield that way. We really only need three weeks of feeding to get 3.5- or 4-bale cotton. Lots of folks were pushing the crop for five or six weeks.

“Then, in the fall, there was boll rot. So, we were trading bottom crop for top crop. While we were trying to make the bolls on top, the bolls on the bottom were rotting. That’s a losing deal. It’s a no-win situation for those of us in the Mid-South to trade bottom for top crop.

“At this point, looking back, how many people would have loved to have had an extra two weeks of picking before the rains hit? That would have made a big, big difference.”