The USDA objective yield survey results collected between September 24 and October 6 have lowered 2009-crop cotton yield expectations and dropped projected cotton production in the High Plains region by 330,000 bales.

Based on the revised figures the area is forecast to produce approximately 3.79 million bales during the 2009 production season. Statewide, the October production estimate scaled Texas Upland cotton prospects back 400,000 bales to an even 5 million bales for 2009.

The fact that USDA lowered High Plains yield estimates didn't catch too many folks by surprise since recent weather patterns haven't been conducive to cotton maturity.

What was surprising to some people were the magnitude of the changes, which dropped yields by 86 pounds per harvested acre in Texas crop reporting district 1-N and by 57 pounds per acre in district 1-S. Only time will tell how closely yield forecasts from survey fields match up with the rest of the crop.

While the October report officially lowers High Plains prospects to 3.79 million bales, there is still a chance that the area will reach the 4 million bale mark once everything is harvested and ginned.