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Despite stresses, U.S. cotton crop holds steady

Despite stresses, U.S. cotton crop holds steady
While forecast cotton yields are lower than last month, crop production is holding steady at 16.6 million bales, due to higher estimated harvested acres outside of Texas. USDA estimated the average yield for U.S. rice at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds per acre from last month. While corn yields are the lowest since 2005-06, production is the third highest ever due to the second highest acreage since 1944. 

Despite season-long stresses in Texas and catastrophic weather events affecting other regions at various times this year, the U.S. cotton crop is holding steady. USDA’s Sept. 12 Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates pegged the crop at 16.6 million bales, up fractionally from last month. Here’s more:


Cotton yield is expected to average 807 pounds per harvested acre, according to USDA, down 15 pounds from last month. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.8 million bales, down 10 percent from 2010. American Pima production, forecast at 737,200 bales.

USDA decreased estimated yield for Texas by 5 pounds from last month. In the Mid-South, yields were increased by 43 pounds from last month for Arkansas, 126 pounds for Louisiana and 57 pounds for Missouri. Expected yields declined in Tennessee by 26 pounds, but were left unchanged in Mississippi.

Every state in the Southeast growing region reported lower yields than in August. Average estimated yield declined from last month by 28 pounds in Alabama, a pound in Florida, 81 pounds in Georgia, 106 pounds in North Carolina, 154 pounds in Virginia and 43 pounds in South Carolina.

Because forecast harvested acres are higher than last year in regions outside of Texas, production forecasts increased in the Mid-South by 973,000 bales, the Southeast, 867,000 bales and the West, 587,000 bales. The total increase is 2.427 million bales from last year. Meanwhile, Texas cotton production is down 3.644 million bales from 2010.

Global cotton ending stocks are now estimated at 51.9 million bales, 18 percent above the beginning level and slightly below last month.


U.S. corn production for 2011-12 is forecast 417 million bushels lower with expected yields down from last month across most of the Corn Belt. The national average corn yield is forecast at 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from August and 16.6 bushels below the 2009-10 record. As forecast, this year’s yield would be the lowest since 2005-06. Despite the lower yield, production is forecast to be the third highest ever with the second highest planted area since 1944.

Total corn use for 2011-12 is projected 400 million bushels lower with tighter supplies. Projected feed and residual use was reduced 200 million bushels mostly reflecting lower expected residual disappearance with the smaller forecast crop.

Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels lower with higher expected corn prices and continued weakening in the outlook for U.S. gasoline consumption.

Projected global corn production for 2011-12 was lowered 5.9 million tons. World corn ending stocks are projected up 2.9 million tons.


U.S. rice production in 2011-12 is forecast at 190.9 million hundredweight, up 2.8 million from last month due entirely to an increase in yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.62 million acres, down 20,000 acres. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds per acre from last month.

Long-grain production is estimated at 119.2 million hundredweight, down 4.9 million from last month, and the smallest crop since 1996-97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at a record 71.6 million, an increase of 7.7 million from last month.

Exports for 2011-12 are projected at 93 million hundredweight, down 4 million hundredweight from last month, and down 18.6 million from last year. All rice ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 38.3 million hundredweight, up 5.1 million from last month.

Global rice production is projected at a record 458.4 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops in Brazil, China, the Philippines, and the United States. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 700,000 from last month, and the largest stocks since 2002-03.


Soybean production is forecast at 3.09 billion bushels, up 1 percent from August but down 7 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 41.8 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month but down 1.7 bushels from last year. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million. 


Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were raised 90 million bushels this month. Imports were raised 10 million bushels with larger supplies in Canada. Exports for 2011-12 are projected 75 million bushels lower with larger supplies and exports expected for Canada and the EU-27.

World wheat trade was raised slightly for 2011-12 with increased imports projected for the United States and Uzbekistan. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 5.7 million tons higher at 194.6 million. At this level, global stocks would be up from 2010-11 and the second largest in the past decade.


USDA dropped estimated U.S. peanut yields from last month by 130 pounds per acre, Production, at 3.457 billion pounds, is a decline of 698 million pounds from last year.



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