With a mix of supply, demand and market dynamics aligning, the corn story remains one to watch in 2025.

Strong feed use, record weekly ethanol production, robust exports and potential weather-driven challenges in South America create an encouraging outlook for corn, says University of Missouri Extension agricultural economist Ben Brown.

He predicts a slight rally in corn futures early in 2025, which could influence U.S. farmers to plant more corn.

“Producers will remember how great it was harvesting corn in 2024,” Brown says, suggesting that price signals at planting might push additional corn acres onto the balance sheet in the coming year.

Brown offered his take on what’s happening in the corn market during the MU Crop Management Conference.

Corn demand for feed

“It was just a very good year for corn production,” Brown says, highlighting Missouri’s standout performance compared to its neighbors. While the state experienced dry conditions, it managed to overachieve when some parts of the U.S. struggled.

Still, from a supply standpoint, the U.S. currently has the largest corn supply ever recorded, including carryover stocks from the previous year. While a large supply can sometimes drag down prices, Brown sees this as a demand-driven story with positive implications for corn.

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The Southeast, particularly Georgia and the Carolinas, faced more crop production challenges. While not major corn producers, these states have a massive corn demand as feed for poultry and hogs. Given the shortage, states such as Missouri are shipping corn to the Southeast to fill in the gap.

“The feed demand category has been very strong for us,” Brown explains. “And I think feed use will be something that helps us and helps our basis as we move into the winter months.”

Excited for ethanol and exports

Corn ethanol was strong in 2024, breaking the all-time weekly production record three times.

Brown compared the ethanol demand driver in the corn market to star athletes like Kansas City Chiefs football players Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes, saying, “You want your best players performing well consistently across the board, and it’s doing just that.”

Still, he said it is important for the corn industry to look for other players to pick up some opportunities. He finds it in the potential future growth of sustainable aviation fuel.

“I don’t know what the tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel that come out of the Inflation Reduction Act will look like,” Brown adds, “but it is an opportunity down the road that could help move corn ethanol demand higher.”

Related:Corn disease identified for first time in Missouri

Another promising place to seize on demand is exports.

Brown points to traditional corn buyers like Colombia, Japan, Korea and Mexico showing increased demand. “All four are at levels very much higher than where we’ve seen them in the past.”

He sees the potential for U.S. exports to fill gaps created by lower corn acreage in Argentina, which cut its planting by 20% because of disease issues.

Weather woes boost corn demand

The weather could also further tip the scales in favor of U.S. corn.

Brown expressed concerns about La Niña conditions affecting South America’s second corn crop, which follows the soybean harvest. With Argentina already facing lower acreage, any weather issues could create even greater potential yield reductions and lead to stronger global demand for U.S. corn.

“January and February are setting up to be a very strong period for corn demand,” Brown says. “It’ll help basis levels. I think we’ll see a little bit of a rally in corn futures markets.”

All of this comes right when producers in the U.S. are getting ready to plant.

For now, the corn outlook is bright spot in the agriculture economy, Brown concludes, offering opportunities for U.S. farmers.