It looks like drought may ease in parts of the West, according to the latest report from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
But while Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and parts of Colorado and Utah are expected to experience near-normal or above-average water supplies, southern Oregon, western Nevada and southern Utah will probably continue to see far below average stream flows.
That's the late word from the NRCS, which adds that April is the month westerners usually see the transition from snow accumulation to the beginning of the melt. That makes the April report of key importance to what farmers may expect this year.
Water outlook for the West has improved, although drought conditions are expected to continue for parts of several states.
"Many water managers, reservoir operators, irrigation districts and hydroelectric power companies make significant strategic decisions based on the April forecasts," explains Cara McCarthy, National Water and Climate Center hydrologist.
In states where snowmelt accounts for the majority of the seasonal water supply, information about snowpack serves as an indicator of future water supply. Stream flow in the West consists largely of accumulated mountain snow that melts and flows into streams as temperatures warm. NRCS scientists analyze the snowpack, air temperature, soil moisture and other factors at remote sites to develop the water supply forecasts.
For the second month in a row, many snow telemetry, or SNOTEL, sites in Montana, Wyoming and parts of Idaho, Washington and Oregon received two to three times the normal amount of precipitation. The Cascades in Washington went from extremely dry in January to a normal snowpack currently, and Montana and Wyoming snowpack is now at record levels.
"There's flooding potential in the Missouri River basin," says McCarthy. "These areas will be the most vulnerable if snow melts rapidly during a hot spell, or if there's extreme rain while the streams are swollen with snowmelt."
The basin takes in parts of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado as well as several Midwestern states.
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