April 3, 2020
The recently released prospective planting report shows a jump in peanuts and corn with Southeastern cotton acres holding steadily down. But it's good to remember the report is based on survey taken the first of March. Things have changed.
Commodity markets are responding to COVID-19 and not much to the USDA annual early season prospective planting report released March 31, said Nathan Smith, a Clemson University agricultural economist.
"Typically, the market is responding to the intentions report from supply side, giving us more information about potential supply. However, demand is also driving the market reactions right now with COVID disrupting consumer behavior and food markets, oil price situation impacting corn and a slowed global economy," he said in an interview April 2.
"Numbers were off from market expectations, especially cotton and corn. But markets seem to think intentions are mainly intentions this time with what has transpired since surveys went out," he said.
"Every peanut state is up with Georgia largest intended acreage increase and South Carolina largest percentage increase. I think it reflects the fundamentals are seen as improving for peanuts and there is some harvest excess capacity from where things were in 2016-2017," he said. "Interesting that cotton is same intentions as last year with Southwest offsetting decreases in the Delta and Southeast. Of course cotton intentions may be outdated since the survey with prices in low 50s now."
Southern Crop Acreage
Here's the basic breakdown for the Deep South, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service Southern office:
Corn planted is estimated at 370,000 acres, up 16% from 2019. If realized, this will be the largest acreage since 1985. Cotton planted intentions are down 2% at 530,000 acres. Peanuts are estimated at 165,000 acres, up 3% from 2019. Producers intend to plant 260,000 acres of soybeans, a 2% decrease from last year. Winter wheat planted is estimated at 150,000 acres, up 15% from last year
Corn planted is estimated at 100,000 acres, up 10,000 acres from 2019. Cotton planted intentions are up 7% at 120,000 acres. Peanuts are estimated at 175,000 acres, up 6% from 2019.
Corn planted is estimated at 440,000 acres, up 11% from 2019. Cotton planted intentions are down 7% at 1.30 million acres. Peanuts are estimated at 740,000 acres, up 10% from 2019. Producers intend to plant 90,000 acres of soybeans, a 10% decrease from last year. If realized, this will be lowest planted area since 1955. Tobacco acreage at 9,000 acres is unchanged from last year. Winter wheat planted is estimated at 190,000 acres, up 27% from last year.
Corn planted is estimated at 390,000 acres, up 3% from 2019. Cotton planted intentions are down 10% at 270,000 acres. Peanuts are estimated at 75,000 acres, up 15% from 2019. Producers intend to plant 320,000 acres of soybeans, a 4% decrease from last year. Tobacco acreage at 7,500 acres is down 10% from last year. Winter wheat planted is estimated at 110,000 acres, up 57% from last year.
NASS estimated corn planted area for all purposes in 2020 at 97.0 million acres, up 8% from last year. Soybean planted area is estimated at 83.5 million acres, up 10% from last year. All wheat planted area, at 44.7 million acres, is down 1% from 2019 and represents the lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919. All cotton planted area for 2020 is estimated at 13.7 million acres, down less than 1% from last year.
USDA's next acreage report will be based on survey conducted in early June.
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