North Carolina State University Extension corn specialist Ron Heiniger remains bullish on corn in 2022 and believes if a farmer can make a yield higher than 160 bushels per acre and prices remain above $5.22 per bushel, the crop looks pretty good this year.

Indeed, finding ways to reduce input costs without lowering yields will be the key to profitability. Importantly, Heiniger remains bullish on higher corn prices this year.

“Yield is still king. I don’t care if fertilizer goes to $800 per ton, yield is still king. If you make 200-bushel corn, you could pay for $800 per ton fertilizer,” Heiniger said in a 2022 Corn and Soybean Agronomic Update held Jan. 31 both in person at the Craven County Extension Center in New Bern and via Zoom.

At the Craven County Extension meeting as well as other winter meetings held across North Carolina this year, Heiniger is advising farmers to know their cost of production and their realistic yield potential. He is urging farmers to use the new Crop Comparison tool, released by North Carolina State’s agricultural resource and economics team, to evaluate the cost and price opportunities of different crops they are considering producing this year.

Heiniger said the tool is helpful in evaluating risks against potential. Risks include higher fertilizer and production costs while potential is yield and price.

To access the Crop Comparison tool go click here.

150-bushel minimum

“Right now, I’d like to see a minimum of 150-bushel corn. I have to make sure I can cover that risk. I am more comfortable at 180-bushel corn. If you cannot guarantee those yield levels, then certainly soybeans or some other crop is far less risky,” Heiniger said.

On the positive side, corn prices are expected to remain high throughout 2022 due to strong demand and low stocks. Heiniger said a key driver in the market is China, which is trying to rebuild their hog operations and needs more corn to meet the need. Demand for ethanol is also helping prices.

In fact, Heiniger believes $8 to $12 per bushel corn is possible this year. “Corn prices are working their way up, they’re not where they need to be yet, but they are working their way up, indicating this shortage of carryover stocks which is usually a good indicator of price,” Heiniger said.

Heiniger noted that farmers attending winter meetings this year are saying they plan to reduce corn acreage due mainly to high fertilizer costs. Indicators are that less corn and more soybeans will be planted in the Midwest as well for the same reason. However, Heiniger points out that ag economists are saying a good corn crop and actually more corn acres are needed in 2022 to meet demand.

“We are seeing this pullback in acres. As a result, we’re going to see some issues because we know ethanol demand has increased. Demand for pork, and poultry and feed is at an all- time high. Throw in the fact the Midwest might see a drought in 2022, you can see why I think $8 to $12 corn is certainly possible,” Heiniger said.

In grower meetings, Heiniger offered pointers on reducing costs without harming yields. He urges farmers to examine every aspect of their operations and find ways to “nibble costs down.” He says reducing seeding rates and applying fertilizer more efficiently will help.

Use flex hybrids

This year, Heiniger is urging farmers to use a flex hybrid and reduce their seeding rates by 1,000 to 2,000 seeds per acre. Flex hybrids are good because they lengthen the corn ear so you can put more kernels per row on each ear.

In situations with lower yield potential, Heiniger says 26,000 to 28,000 seeds per acre is the optimal planting rate this year. For fields with higher yield potential, Heiniger says 33,000 seeds per acre is a good seeding rate, maybe even higher.

Certainly, high fertilizer costs remain the top concern of farmers in 2022.

“We need to use fertilizer this year as efficiently as we’ve ever used it in our lifetimes. How do we do that? We have to get more out of the soil. We have to get more of that nitrogen to the root system and into the plant,” Heiniger said, stressing that finding ways to get more potassium, potash and sulfur to the corn plant is also important.

“We have to develop these first five nodal roots. That’s where most of our root system in the corn plant comes from,” Heiniger stressed. “It has to be right out of the ground. From the day we plant the seed we’re wanting to develop as much root mass as we can.”

How do you do that?

“Plant at the right time in a good environment, so the plant jumps out of the ground and starts developing leaf area as quickly as possible,” Heiniger said.

To do this, Heiniger says the first rule to remember is the corn plant will need 40 to 50 growing degree units for the first four to five days after seeds are put in the ground. Heiniger said this is the temperature requirement.

Heiniger said the second rule is just as important but can’t really be controlled: The corn plant doesn’t need a big rain the first seven days after planting.

“When we get a lot of rain behind the planter, where does the water go? Where is the least restrictive pathway for water into the soil after you planted that crop? It’s down in the seed furrow. That’s the least restrictive path, so if you get a two-inch rain, it saturates the seed zone. It then takes time to dry out so things can get enough oxygen to start respiring and growing again. We would hope to avoid that,” he said.

The key is to encourage early growth and early root development to maximize water and nutrient efficiency from the soil.

Heiniger is still a big advocate of applying starter fertilizer, but he says starter applications can be reduced if you are able to plant in a very good environment, have a phosphorous index above 40, and have sufficient micronutrients, especially zinc, plus sulfur on sandy soils.

Heiniger said if you have at least one-third of your requirements of 50 pounds of nitrogen applied at planting, then starter fertilizer can be reduced.

He said farmers should be able to cut nitrogen fertilizer rates by 20 to 30 pounds per acre without harming yield. In addition, he says farmers need to know their soil test so they can rely on stored nutrients such as potassium, potash, zinc, and sulfur.

“This is not the year to apply more fertilizer than your soil test calls for, unless you have a really good reason for doing that. Rely on that root mass to take up what’s in your soil,” Heiniger said.