Farm Progress

Soybeans and Corn Building MomentumRice and Wheat Remain Bullish Cotton Searching for Bottom

Bobby Coats, Professor

July 4, 2017

3 Min Read
Corn rises out a field in front of a row of grain bins near Clarksdale, Miss., in May 2017

What to expect from the markets this week, July 3, 2017

Market “Near Term” Snap Shot

  • 10-year Treasury Yield needs to finish the countertrend move started the week of July 3, 2017 from 2.14 to 2.31

  • S&P 500: A cautionary time period   

  • Global Equities: A cautionary time period  

  • U.S. Dollar: In search of a bottom with a couple of options being 95 area (basically achieved) or 92

  • Oil $WTIC: Likely assume Bearish until $48 holds as support

  • Commodity Index: Most likely this index at the very least needs to revisit previous lows

  • Corn: Appears the correction of the upside move has completed with potentially higher prices

  • Wheat: Price potential to $5.51 almost achieved

  • Soybeans: The bottoming process likely has not yet completed, a retest of the $9.00 area or lower a possibility

  • Rice: Bullish bias remains

  • Cotton: Prices need to hold current levels or otherwise consideration has to be given to revisiting the 2016 low around 55-cents or lower

In addition to the following “Expanded near Term Market Considerations Week Beginning July 3, 2017”

  • Note: Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link

This Week’s Select Summary Considerations:

  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield:

    • The 10-Year US Treasury Yield needs to finish the countertrend move started the week of July 3, 2017 from 2.14 to 2.31

    • We enter the week with the 10 Year US Treasury Yield slightly bearish with a potentially higher yield (trend presently remains bullish or lower yield)

    • Demand, Economic Weakness, Event Risk Concerns, or Other Market Concerns/Factors will likely take yields lower to 2 or below before significant move higher

  • US Dollar Index:

    • In search of a bottom with a couple of options being 95 area (basically achieved) or 92

    • Big Picture: The dollar has a bullish bias given global economic, social, political and military challenges

    • Unless Middle East, North Korean, European, other anomaly events start to dominate market participant decisions for a period, then we are still DEFINING a trading range 95 -104

  • CRB Index:

    • Most likely this index at the very least needs to revisit previous lows

    • Caution is advised since global economic uncertainties remain problematic

    • Bigger Picture: Though spastic global macro and growth forces in general remain supportive of the commodity sector

  • $WTIC Light Crude Oil:

    • Likely assume Bearish until $48 holds as support

    • Complex and volatile market

    • Fundamentals have overridden OPEC verbal guidance and an array of other factors

    • Fundamentals and other factors now suggest consideration of a possible price move below $41

  • Soybeans:

    • The bottoming process likely has not yet completed, a retest of the $9.00 area or lower a possibility

    • A price move through $9.70 opens the door to higher prices

    • A resumption of commodity index weakness, a likely function of fundamentals and Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Global Economic Uncertainties, could translate into a price move to $8.35 or lower

  • Corn:

    • Appears the correction of the upside move has completed with potential higher prices

    • Cautionary Note: Sustained oil price weakness could possibly be problematic for corn prices

  • Long Grain Rice:

    • Bullish bias remains

    • This is a highly complex market with an array of factors impacting price from 2016-2017 fundamentals; 2017 acreage, production and quality uncertainties; present underlying aggregate commodity sector dynamics; problematic global economic momentum, geopolitical uncertainties, and/or global agronomic outlook

  • Cotton:

    • Prices need to hold current levels or otherwise consideration has to be given to revisiting the 2016 low around 55-cents or lower

  • Wheat:

    • Price potential to $5.51 almost achieved

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF:

    • A cautionary time period

    • Allow price action to provide guidance

  • QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares:

    • A cautionary time period

    • Allow price action to provide guidance

  • EFA iShares ETF - Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada:

    • A cautionary time period

    • Allow price action to provide guidance

  • EEM iShares ETF, Emerging Market Equities:

    • A cautionary time period

    • Allow price action to provide guidance

  1. Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas System. E-mail: [email protected].

DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES

About the Author(s)

Bobby Coats

Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service

Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service.

E-mail: [email protected].

 

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