Farm Progress is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

Are corn prices approaching a bottom?

1.16 UnloadingCorn050517-1540x800_2.jpg
The struggle in the oil markets is continuing to impact corn prices.

Corn prices continue to struggle as the fallout in crude oil becomes historically dangerous. Demand worries associated with ethanol becomes more concerning. A few weeks back the trade was talking perhaps -300 million to -500 million bushel reduction in corn demand, now all of a sudden the trade is thinking we could see a much larger reduction in corn used for ethanol. At the same time, we are digesting continued headlines of meat processing plant closures and weakening feed demand. Technically, it feels like the MAY 2020 contract is wanting to test major psychological support down at $3.00 per bushel. The new-crop DEC20 contract posted fresh contract lows and will now be trying to hold support in the $3.30 to $3.35 range. 

In Brazil, traders continue to closely monitor rainfall events as a portion of its second-crop is in need of a drink. At this point, the market doesn't see it as much concern especially with such demand uncertainties circulating. The weather here at home seems mostly a non-event. Some producers are saying they have fields that are too dry, while others are saying they have fields that are too wet. Bottom-line, the planters are starting to roll in more big production areas.
With that being said, as a spec, I remain long the JUL20 contract. When I initiated the position my thought was to start extremely small in the low $3.30's and cost-averaging into more units between $2.80 and $3.20 per bushel if the downward pressure persists. The craziness and almost unthinkable in crude oil now has me more concerned and uncertain about nearby corn prices. At least for the moment, I am going to hold off adding any additional length. As a producer, we have only a small number of hedges left in place to protect the downside and I'm probably lifting the remaining ones if we break sub-$3.00. 
There has never been more uncertainty in the trade than right now!! So, follow my daily report and recommendations now more than ever for the next 30 days free by clicking HERE.

The opinions of Kevin Van Trump are not necessarily those of Corn and Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

The source is solely responsible for the information provided and is wholly owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all its subsidiaries are not responsible for any of the content contained in this information asset.

Hide comments


  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.