It’s that time of year again: harvest!

As we enter the second half of September, we are starting to see more combines fire up across the U.S. The big question on everyone’s mind is: “What will our crops yield?”

Overall, 2024 has been one of the best years for growing conditions. Many areas got an early start to planting, had plenty of moisture and plenty of heat throughout the year. However, a question on most farmers minds is: “Did the hot and dry conditions in late August and early September cost us a few bushels per acre on our soybeans?”

Let’s talk about the potential of a lower yield and what effect it might have on the markets. Currently USDA is projecting a national yield of 53.2 bushels per acre with a total production of about 4.586 billion bushels. USDA is projecting the U.S. to harvest about 86.3 million acres of soybeans and our projected carryout in the U.S. is a whopping 550 million bushels (which would be the second highest in history).

Lower yields drive down carryout

Now, with 86.3 million acres harvested, for each 1 bushel per acre drop in yield we can decrease our U.S. carryout by 86.3 million bushels (assuming demand stays unchanged). So, if we decrease the yield average by 1 b/A, our U.S. carryout would drop to 463.7 million bushels. If the hot and dry weather took a toll and we got a decline of 2 b/A, our U.S. carryout would drop to 377.4 million bushels (which would still be a top five carryout in U.S. history).

Time will tell if we get a yield decline (and if we do, how much). But, as you can see, the U.S. will still have plenty of soybeans. Add on top of this, world soybean ending stocks are at record high levels. With ending stocks projected at 134.6 MMT – up from 112.3 MMT last year – the U.S. and world will still have plenty of soybeans.

Can we get a rally?

What does this mean for prices on soybeans?

Stay disciplined. Use rallies to make sales and if you are storing your soybeans, take advantage of the large carry in the market. With large carryout projected in the U.S. and world on soybeans, rallies will be capped on the upside.

Have questions? Feel free to contact me directly at 605-657-1978 or anyone on the AgMarket.Net team at 844-4AG-MRKT.

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