Feeling more bumps this fall may be a sign of age – for you or your equipment. But anyone following just about any market from soybeans to stocks got that same ride. Though the causes in corn are different than in currencies, a wave in one can ripple across the board and drown everybody.

So, get ready to watch USDA’s Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates with one eye on crop data and the other ready for what could be the next great inflection point for other markets – Sept. 18. That’s when the next two-day meeting on monetary policy concludes at the Federal Reserve with what is broadly expected to be the first cut in short-term interest rates in more than five years.

Lower rates could be a good sign for investors that the central bank believes inflation is finally under control. But worry-warts fret fear of recession could force the Fed’s hand into a large reduction, sending markets of all persuasions sharply lower. That dynamic kept financial and commodity prices moving while trying to do something difficult: wait.

It’s unclear whether the USDA report could be undercut by the Fed, because cooler heads rarely prevail when chaos reigns. With harvest just getting under way, the data don’t support major revisions to the WASDE. But predicting Washington is difficult at best.

USDA’s latest report on farm financial conditions is just the most recent example. Though the government forecast lower net farm income for 2024, it’s higher than its previous prognostication. And no guesses for 2025 are out yet, but the WASDE will allow traders to update their own forecasts.

Debt: Under control

For all the handwringing about problems, the latest official farm financial forecasts don’t look that bad overall. Farmer debt-to-asset ratios remain well under control, falling for the fourth consecutive year while reaching the lowest in a decade.

That big picture doesn’t help farmers trying to decide what to do with corn and soybeans this fall. The last word on 2024 production won’t be muttered for months, if not years – and it’s hard to hear the true story right now.

Most of the focus now is on the supply side of the price equation. Demand also matters. But the details are far more nuanced and even harder to predict months in advance.

Talk about crystal balls fogged by war and peace!

Red ink bleeds

My pricing models suggest corn could have some upside for rallies unless yields are significantly higher, say 185 bpa, which would shout “Look out below!” Fundamentals for soybeans look better for price potential, an outlook that would change dramatically if yields are really big – well above 55 bpa.

A Sept. 12 WASDE with more modest modifications, which seems likely, shouldn’t cause any major panic.

Friday’s market machinations illustrate the problem with ignoring what’s happening to the rest of the markets. A big downdraft on Wall Street caused corn and soybeans to retreat as well. It’s hard to keep red ink on the trading screen from bleeding across most – if not all – so-called “risk assets.”

Corn and soybeans may be staples. But for many traders they’re just another way to bet. Gamblin’ money can quickly move the needle for farmers.