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Will November break dry trend of last 30 years?Will November break dry trend of last 30 years?

Climate Observations: Minnesota’s weather so far this year and NOAA give clue to fall precipitation.

Mark Seeley

October 18, 2024

2 Min Read
dry soil
RAIN ON WAY? Will November rains replenish moisture to soils that have dried since the spring and early-summer deluges? Or will this November hold to the dry pattern of the last 30 years? Kevin Schulz

Minnesota farmers recognize November as a transition month. We set the clocks back to standard time as day length shrinks, nighttime temperatures routinely drop below freezing, cloudiness becomes more prevalent, and precipitation often turns into a mixture of rain and snow.

Perhaps not as widely recognized is the trend toward dryness that has been in evidence over the past 30 years, as most Novembers have been drier than normal.

Average November precipitation in the state ranges from under an inch in western and northern locations to 1.75 inches in southeastern counties. The statewide historical average is 1.35 inches, and most often comes from a mix of rain and snow.

But over the past 30 years, two-thirds of all Novembers have brought less than normal precipitation to the state. In fact, November of 2023, 2011, 2007, 2002 and 1999 are among the driest in state climate history, with statewide average precipitation falling under half an inch.

If we calculate the trend in this data, the average statewide November precipitation recently has been about 0.60 inch less than it was 30 years ago. This translates to a 45% reduction.

Some might be dismissive about this downward trend, but we must remember that November is often the last month in the year that precipitation helps recharge soil moisture, as our soils often freeze up in December and no longer take in moisture.

Record-low moisture

In some of the more recent dry Novembers, agricultural counties have reported record low amounts of precipitation. For example, in November 2023, Luverne in Rock County reported zero precipitation, while Litchfield in Meeker County and Collegeville in Stearns County only reported a trace of precipitation. In November 2011, Faribault in Rice County and Olivia in Renville County reported zero precipitation.

In November 2007, Halstad in Norman County reported zero precipitation, while Glenwood in Pope County, Little Falls in Morrison County and Rothsay in Wilkin County reported only a trace. That same month Morris in Stevens County reported only 0.01 inch. All these values were record-setting for these ag counties in Minnesota.

As for this November, it appears that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate models see no tendency for abnormal dryness or wetness to prevail. Based on the climate track record for 2024 so far, my guess would be that it will be wetter than normal and therefore not follow the trend of the past three decades.

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About the Author

Mark Seeley

Mark Seeley is an Extension professor emeritus of meteorology and climatology at the University of Minnesota.

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