Grain prices seem to be holding steady heading into the Aug. 12 USDA WASDE report. Trade is bracing for a large yield number from USDA. But might there be surprises in this report?

What’s happened

Looking back at history, the August WASDE report in some years was a catalyst for an early harvest-price low. However, in other years, the gleaned information projected hefty supplies, which sent grain prices even lower.

From a marketing perspective

Here are four watchlist items to monitor for Monday.

For soybeans, the current U.S. ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop year are pegged at 435 million bushels, which is a comfortable supply number. This is up from 345 million bushels for the 2023-24 crop year, and also up from 264 million bushels from the 2022-23 crop year.

For corn, the current U.S. ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop year are pegged at 2.097 billion bushels. Up from 1.877 billion bushels from the 2023-24 crop year, and 1.36 billion bushels in the 2022-23 crop year. Remember, the perception of large supplies tends to weigh on prices.

Traders will also be watching global wheat production and the many tweaks that could be expected country by country. Trade is expecting a smaller European Union wheat crop, driven by a sharply reduced French crop due to heavy rains.

The U.S. wheat crop may prove to be a touch larger than expected, thanks to timely rains. Overall, the trend for global wheat ending stocks continues to be getting smaller. Will that continue?

Prepare yourself

Current trade perception is for large supplies of U.S. grains, which could weigh on prices into fall, unless there is a surprise fundamental spark on the Aug. 12 report, which could ignite a rally.

The above four things are factors that could have an enormous impact on prices until the end of 2024. Therefore, get your marketing plan ready. Will record crops take place this year? Only time will tell.

Have a plan in place. Together we’ll see what awaits in Monday’s report.   

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X (previously Twitter): @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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