As calendar year 2024 winds down, preliminary U.S. corn supply and demand projections for the 2025-26 crop year are surfacing. Questions this year surround U.S. acreage intentions, South American corn production prospects, and uncertainty regarding the world demand for corn. A combination of factors may lead to a possible significant increase in U.S. ending stocks in 2025-26.

The 2025-26 corn balance sheet below provides a starting point to look at next year’s prospects, though much will likely change by the time that crop year ends on Aug. 31, 2026.

Focusing on supply, the “ATI 2025-26” projection pegs planted acreage at 93 million, which is a 2.5% increase over 2024. Final acreage will depend, among other factors, on price relationships with other crops and on spring weather trends. Using a yield of 184 bushels per acre, the result is a record forecasted production of 15.64 billion bushels. Factoring in the 2024-25 ending stocks estimate of 1.71 bbu and adding in a small level of imports, total supply is forecast at a record 17.375 bbu.

Figure 1: 2025-26 Corn Balance Sheet (projections). Source: USDA, ATI

How much corn will Brazil produce?

Looking at South America, the USDA estimates that total corn production in Brazil will reach 127 MMT in 2024-25 but that much of the expected crop will not be planted until the soybean harvest is complete in early 2025. Safrinha corn is expected to contribute more than 75% of total production.

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Due to a late start of the rainy season, followed by irregular precipitation in September and early October, soybean planting began at a slow pace in Brazil and only gained momentum in mid-October. According to CONAB, Brazilian producers planted nearly 50% of the estimated 117 million soybean acres between Oct. 20 and Nov. 10. Since a large portion of the soybean crop was planted in a short window, harvest will likely occur very quickly, especially in key producing areas such as the Central-West.

The resulting risk is that a rainy January and February may not only affect soybean harvest, but also the planting of second-crop corn. If the safrinha corn is not planted within the ideal window, which in Mato Grosso, for instance, is by the end of February, the crop faces a higher risk of facing dry weather during its critical development stages. In the southern areas of Paraná, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul, the later the planting occurs, the higher the chance of a frost during the late development stages of the crop.

Most of Brazil’s corn exports occur after the safrinha corn crop is harvested (Figure 2) and are highly competitive with U.S. first-quarter exports. With an increasing domestic demand for feed consumption and ethanol use, Brazilian corn exports slowed in the 2023-24 marketing year and will likely continue below the high record levels reached in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

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Figure 2: Brazil Monthly Corn Exports: 2019-20-2023-24. Source: Brazil Ministry of Economy

With an estimated acreage reduction in 2024-25, Argentina’s corn production is expected to only partially recover from the 2022-23 drought, when production fell by nearly 30% year-on-year. Yet production will still be higher than last year’s when corn stunt disease affected yield in parts of the central and northern regions.

While uncertainty remains regarding total acres, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s most recent crop report highlighted that “... improved economic conditions and the low incidence of Dalbulus maidis [corn leafhoppers] could lead to an increase in late-planted area compared to the current estimate.”

With higher production, Argentina’s exports will likely be higher than the 36 MMT projected in the November WASDE report.

Will Brazil corn exports increase?

In last month’s report, the USDA penciled a 9% increase in both Brazil’s and Argentina’s corn exports for 2024-25, which equates to 275 million bushels more than last year. More competition from South America will negatively affect U.S. exports in the current and next marketing years.

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But the future of world demand still brings additional uncertainty to the corn market, with China being the wild card to watch. Chinese import needs are declining from the record levels seen earlier this decade. As a result, U.S. shipped and unshipped sales to China are at their lowest levels since 2020-21.

Brazil’s corn exports to China are also well below last year’s record levels. Between March and November 2024, Brazil shipped 0.817 MMT of corn to China, which is only 6.3% of the 13.06 MMT exported during the same period last year.

Though Argentina signed an agreement to export corn to China earlier this year, nothing has been sent to that country in the current marketing year.

Suppose we combine all the factors listed above and continue our initial example presented in Figure 1. In this case, the last column in the table (“ATI 2025/26”) suggests ending stocks at 2.235 bbu, which is a 31% increase from 2024-25 (Figure 3).

Figure 3: U.S. corn ending stocks: 2000/2001-2025/2026 (projection). Source: USDA, ATI

This exercise illustrates the potential for a significant increase in ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year. Historically, an increase in stocks of this magnitude is associated with lower prices.

As always, it is impossible to say what supply and demand factors will eventually influence the market—especially when planting is ongoing in South America. During a time of market uncertainty, developing and implementing a flexible risk management strategy can help manage price volatility and defend your balance sheet for next year’s crop.

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