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3 lockdown lessons for a post-pandemic world.

Mike Wilson, Senior Executive Editor

April 28, 2020

9 Min Read
Storm clouds over Central California

When you’re hunkered down -- braced for anything and everything -- it’s hard to imagine what the world will look like once the storm has passed. But this storm will pass. It is not too early to think about how to make food and farming even better in a post-pandemic world.

It’s a tough assignment. How do you focus on big thoughts when the world is on edge?

I try to imagine what my dad would have done to farm and protect his family during a global health crisis.

He was good at listening but not much of a talker. It was fun to watch nervous salesmen try to engage my dad in conversation. Silence was never ‘awkward,’ he was just using those quiet moments to think.

Both my parents loved to learn. Pop taught ag before going back to the farm. As a young punk I thought my learning days were over after graduation; I quickly found out otherwise. We’re learning a lot these days, and some of it is quite sobering.

Most important, dad knew how to ignore nonsense. Instead he had what they called horse sense, a phrase not often used in the mass media today.

And, when folks needed help they were there to lend a hand, a trait we see repeated over and over again now in hundreds of small town communities. Kindness goes a long way.

I see all these traits in farm families today, which is why we’ll pull through this mess mostly unscathed.

In harm’s way

Farmers never think of themselves as heroes, but let’s face it: unless you can do your job holed up in a basement, you’re putting yourself in harm’s way each time you go to work. And it’s much more dangerous at a food processing plant, as the grim reports of COVID-19 cases in those facilities attest. Doctors and nurses deserve all our praise, but these food processing folks, too, are ‘essential workers,’ something I hope consumers don’t forget the next time they grumble about government tax dollars going to support the farm safety net.

Imagine if a farmer threw up his hands and said, “this is too dangerous, I’m going for the unemployment line!”

In a post-pandemic world, won’t consumers have a deeper understanding of the supply chain between farmer-in the-field and food-on-their-plate? Maybe instead of honking impatiently behind your combine this fall, you’ll get a wave of gratitude, or a silently mouthed, ‘thank you.’

Maybe.

For farmers, this may feel like it’s worse than the dreaded ‘80s,’ but this time the demand destruction and supply chain disruption is, hopefully, short-term. People gotta eat. Prices will rebound. Ethanol should come back. Most farmers are still fairly well capitalized.

Best advice is to hunker down, slash expenses, top off your fuel tank with cheap diesel, and resist panic sales. Revise crop budgets, and marketing plans, accordingly. Review what protections you do have, such as crop insurance or ARC/PLC enrollments. Do a financial stress test with your lenders. Over-communicate with business partners, even if by phone or video chat. Stay safe.

“Since the pandemic has come upon us, my overall goal this year is to survive in these turbulent times by keeping my inputs as low as possible,” says Indiana farmer Mike Starkey. Adds Illinois farmer Kirk Liefer: “With the coronavirus pandemic taking hold on America’s economy it’s made all business owners, farmers included, reassess how vulnerable they can be when something hits like this.”

When Commstock Investments president Matthew Kruse attended TEPAP several years ago, he remembered one veteran farmer explaining his strategy for getting through the 80’s: “‘We didn’t buy a single thing for five years,’ he said. “No equipment, no tools - nothing. They cut expenses and kept as much cash on hand as possible.”

Lockdown lessons

As the world grapples with unprecedented human loss and a nascent urge to re-open for business, what lessons will come from the global lockdown?

1 – Reimagine a more resilient, nimble food supply chain. When the food service industry suddenly got shuttered, we learned our ‘just-in-time’ supply chains are easily disrupted. Onion and other fresh vegetables got plowed under. Milk got dumped. Pigs are now being euthanized. Cattlemen saw demand and price drop when restaurants shuttered; that demand and product could not instantly be moved directly to consumers or grocery stores, so while farm prices tanked, retail prices spiked. When egg producers who sell pallets of eggs to restaurants got shut down, those eggs couldn’t simply be moved into grocery stores. We had to change a government regulation to shift that market, and even then, it didn’t happen overnight; someone has to produce more of those dozen-egg cardboard containers. Dairy’s two supply chains, one for food service and one for retail, don’t talk to each other. They cannot simply re-align when one pipeline falls apart.

It sounds dumb even as I write this, but that’s how this works: lower prices at the farm and higher prices and scarcity at the grocer. And even with all this disruption most U.S. consumers are getting the food they need to weather this storm.

2- Investigate meat price manipulation and if needed break up meat monopolies. In a letter to the attorney general and the USDA secretary, U.S. congressman Steve King, R, Iowa, wrote that live cattle prices were down 16% since early February even as American consumers bought 77% more meat during the week of March 15 compared to 2019. That resulted in higher beef values for meat packers but lower prices for farmers and ranchers – something that “simply cannot be explained, much less justified, by legitimate supply and demand market forces,” says King. The senate has also called for investigation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission established a task force to monitor market activity.

For decades the U.S. Justice Department has turned a blind eye to meat processing concentration. Now four companies – Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef – control 84% of all beef processing, JBS and Tyson Foods control about 40% of poultry, and JBS and three other companies control nearly 70% of pork. When one JBS hog slaughterhouse closed in Minnesota last week, 10% of the nation’s hog processing capacity instantly ground to a halt. When Tyson closed its largest plant in Waterloo this week, it shut down 3.9% of the nation’s hog processing capacity.

I’m no fan of regulations but unfettered competition from multiple players would do wonders for livestock producers and consumers alike. Yes, it’s less efficient and it would add cost at the retail level. But food is a national security issue, a lesson we seem to have forgotten until now.

3 – Unharvested food is a wakeup call for immigration reform. Food rotting in fields while people go hungry tends to sharpen the senses. Consumer outrage picks up.

President Trump banned immigration this week, but foreign farm workers will be exempt. Unfortunately the battle to allow in foreign labor, and the impact on unharvested crops, has been going on for some time. The pandemic will make ag’s ongoing labor crisis even worse, something A.G. Kawamura knows about.

“It’s seldomly recognized, but our nation’s food supply is produced, created and harvested by some amazing, incredible heroes -- our farm workers, our farm people,” says the third-generation fruit and vegetable grower and former secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture. “That’s suddenly recognized, but when shelves are empty all of a sudden there’s an opportunity to see that agriculture is very important and very critical. We’re pleased at recognition and support from not only the administration but from all governments, that they recognize this important endeavor – agriculture – definitely needs to move forward with all the help and assistance it can under these circumstances.

"This is not a fire drill,” he adds. “Every day is a day when we recognize the vulnerability of our food system."

Food insecurity starts at the farm gate. If our farmers don’t have adequate labor to plant and harvest food, prices will go up and people will go hungry. Urge Congress for immigration reform that allows free flow of migrant farmworkers.

The folly of war

Not long ago United Nations secretary General António Guterres called on the world’s warring nations to put down arms to focus on fighting the disease. “The fury of the virus illustrates the folly of war,” he said philosophically.

Heroic words, to be sure. But what about the war on hunger? The UN recently warned that global recession and economic fallout from COVID-19 could double the 130 million people already facing starvation, mainly in Africa (for more on food insecurity impacts go here.)

Surviving a pandemic gives us another chance to learn better ways to fight that battle.

In agriculture like any business, crisis forces the need for innovation. We need an innovation mindset to make farming and supply chains more flexible, less risky, and built to absorb Black Swan shocks.

Science will solve Coronavirus. Will the crisis steel us to make the changes needed to provide sustainable food for 10 billion by 2050? This spring is a rueful reminder that there are millions of mouths to be fed.

We know we have the capacity. But do we have the will?

The signs are hopeful. Science is racing to find a corona cure even as countries lay down arms to solve differences. There’s an outpouring of kindness worldwide. We’ve seen innovation, from drive-thru farmer markets to shifting government policies that allow surpluses re-directed to food banks.

As citizens of planet earth, this pandemic proves we are all joined at the hip.

Kawamura believes the agriculture sector here and around the world will all rise to the challenge and ensure food security.

“This pandemic - as difficult as it is, as challenging as it is - is a bit of a reset button for how the world learns very quickly just how collaborative we can be,” he says. “We’re realizing the capacity exists. We just have to activate it.”

At this point my dad might ask: “What did we learn from this?”

Let’s learn from the failures we’re witnessing now and innovate for the future. The world needs you.

This storm will pass. It’s up to us to decide what remains.

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress. 

Read more about:

Covid 19

About the Author(s)

Mike Wilson

Senior Executive Editor, Farm Progress

Mike Wilson is the senior executive editor for Farm Progress. He grew up on a grain and livestock farm in Ogle County, Ill., and earned a bachelor's degree in agricultural journalism from the University of Illinois. He was twice named Writer of the Year by the American Agricultural Editors’ Association and is a past president of the organization. He is also past president of the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists, a global association of communicators specializing in agriculture. He has covered agriculture in 35 countries.

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