The planting season of soybean is almost done in Brazil. Around 94.5% of the estimated area is completed and states like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and Goiás finished earlier than last year, due to favorable weather.

But what started out as an optimistic forecast is now worrying farmers in Mato Grosso, a state that produces a fourth of the country’s soybeans. Several days of cloudy and rainy weather is hindering crop development, and making fertilizer applications difficult.

In Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul rains are not expected in the next few weeks, so there will be time for soil to dry. The Department of Rural Economy of Paraná (Deral), reported that 83% of crops are in good condition, 15% in average condition and 2% poor, with 1% of the areas in germination, 55% in vegetative growth, 35% in flowering and 9% in grain filling.

Exports increase

Usually there is no expectation of increase in exports of soybean oil in the last quarter of the year, but, with the announcement of the reduction of soybean as a compound in biodiesel, the industries elevated their exports to compensate this shorter usage of the product inside the country.

Now, with the expected increase in exports of soybean oil, Brazil’s crushing will likely be 1.7 billion bushels (48,38 million tons) and final stocks should end around 164 million bushels (4.48 million tons). For the next harvest, motivated by this reduction in consumption, numbers are expected to go from 40 million bushels (1.1 million tons) to 56 million bushels (1.53 million tons).

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.