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Review your cattle buying strategy

Take time to study the cattle markets to identify pockets of profit opportunity.

Doug Ferguson

August 16, 2024

6 Min Read
VECTORBOMB-THINKSTOCKPHOTOS

“Holy cow! That’s outstanding! Now keep in mind that results like this are not typical. I don’t want you getting spoiled LOL. Fun stuff.”

I have been getting a lot of texts from past participants of my marketing schools that have done some monster trades the last week and a half and that has been my reply to many of them. I am amazed how many are making well over $300/head.

Some found themselves in a high cost of gain situation. Buying back a lighter weight animal wasn’t in the cards, yet they managed to do leapfrogs with $180/head value capture.

When we know what we are doing, this can be fun. The thing is most people view this business as a struggle. That is only an external systemic thinking problem that can be fixed by learning from the right people.

Tough life decisions

Last week my daughter tried out for several basketball clubs. She made the team she wanted at each of them. My wife and I gave her a little of our opinions and left the decision up to her. She really struggled with this, and my wife and I did too. My daughter did a SWOT analysis of each team. I am not sure where she learned to do that, and it was a great help in making her decision.

Kids need to be given a little room to make some tough decisions. After she picked her team, I pointed out to her she was learning more than just basketball. Making tough decisions like that in a short time window is a skill entrepreneurs must develop.

Too many times now I have seen tragic endings because the old man makes all the decisions until the day he died. Suddenly a man in his 60’s that has never made a big hard decision finds himself facing that every day and they break.

While faced with her decision, my daughter was given an escape hatch. One of the coaches told her that if she didn’t pick his team and she found herself not liking the team she picked, that the door was always open for her to come over to his team. We don’t usually get that option in business.

Cattle buying strategy

Some people get overwhelmed when buying cattle. Should I buy this one or wait and see if a better buy comes along? Or maybe they bought one, then later a better buy passes by them and they regret buying what they did at that point.

When implementing legit sell/buy marketing, we capture our profit target when we replace the animal that we just sold. If we hit the profit target when we replaced, don’t worry about it if another one passes by that was a better buy back.

Our success in this business will be determined by the trades we string together over decades of being in business. By locking that profitable buy back down we are well on our way to achieving that decades-long success.

Put in the work

My daughter had an ankle injury and couldn’t do much at the tryouts. We swallowed the idea of disappointment ahead of time thinking there was a good chance she’d get cut. To our surprise, the coaches were already aware of who she was – her skill level and dedication – and that is why she was selected to be on each club’s top team.

This got me thinking of how some people complain that others seem to always get breaks in life. The people that get those breaks usually have earned them. It is based on past performance, their willingness to get the job done, and they have put in more work.

I wrote about this in the past – most people want to fit in and be average. This is what holds the average down. Most people are not willing to put in the extra effort to get better. They just want to get rid of those who are better than them so that the average will drop and that will make them look better. Because that bar is set so low, it doesn’t take much to rise above it. Learning a few skills or gaining a little more knowledge, putting in a little more practice and work, is all that is required.

A couple years ago I had this group of stockers that I rotated using a poly wire. The last 30 days they were here I never hooked that wire up to a power source. Over 200 head of them stayed behind that wire, but one figured it out and would crawl under it to go to fresh grass ahead of the group. In that case, less than half a percent was willing to take the risk of getting shocked and be above average.

This week on the feeder side, the Value of Gain (VOG) was above the average Cost of Gain (COG). There was a spot where it dipped below right around the seven and eight weight cattle. Unweaned calves were steadily 10 dollars back. Heavier bawlers took an even bigger discount. Feeder bulls were 20-70 back. When comparing feeders to fats, the cattle square shows that there are plenty of profitable replacement buys compared to fats.

Female sales held their current trend this week. A bred heifer in the third period is worth well more than a producer would have in her, while heifers in the first have no fans in the seats. Three and 4-year-old breds appreciate over the bred heifer. The five-year-old bred cows are creating an inverted bell curve, as that is where most of the depreciation is taking place.

Depending on the sale we examine, short solids sold equal to or greater than five-year-olds. In some places an open seven weight heifer is selling for more than a five-year-old in the first or second period. The market is letting pairs go for a little more than females in the third period.

Buyers need to study their lesson – we can’t get a calf on the ground for what it will cost to calve one out compared to pairs, and five-year-olds in the first or second are a great bang for the buck. There is opportunity to reap some four-figure value captures marketing females right now.

The law of polarity is in full force right now. I opened with how some people are reaping some awesome cash flow. The thing is other people are losing big money right now. This underscores what I wrote about the systemic thinking problem and getting the right education. While some are fretting over damage control and the risk of debt the rest of us are feeling pretty good about our cash-on-cash returns right now.

Keep learning

My August school in Idaho is sold out, and registrations are steadily coming in for November and December schools which will be held in Nebraska. Another option is to order Ann Barnhardt’s DVD set. I have recommended her DVDs in the past and I’ve even received some testimonials from people that ordered them.

Marketing Schools – Mr Cattlemaster

Ann Barnhardt’s Cattle Marketing DVD Set | Barnhardt

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