We all love technology, or at least we love the conveniences such tools provide. I spent last weekend at a local fall festival that showcased technology from the early 20^th century, and it served as a great reminder of how far we’ve come. After going, I’m so thankful I don’t have to pump my water, handwash my clothes, or churn my butter.

Technology also helps U.S. farmers in countless ways, the least of which is seed technology designed to produce better yields, which help offset the lower prices we’re seeing today. These technologies and advancements are not limited to the United States. Because of this, the U.S. no longer is the worldwide agricultural giant that it used to be.

Ten years ago, this country and Brazil had about equal shares of the world’s exports. But between advancements in growing area, agronomic technology, and logistics, Brazil has far outpaced the U.S. in growth and that country’s exports now double U.S. bean exports (58% vs 28%).

Surprisingly, the 58% market share is coming off a sub-par production year in 2023-24, where Brazil's production was 153 MMT (per USDA), down 5% compared to the year before. The latest USDA estimate pegged the 2024-25 Brazilian crop size at 169 MMT. While many will argue that 169 MMT is a lofty and unattainable expectation, considering Brazil has never produced a crop that large, it cannot be completely discounted.

Those same arguments were made against USDA estimates for corn and soybean yields earlier this spring. Yet here we are, staring down the barrel of what looks like a corn and bean crop that will not only attain but quite possibly exceed those original USDA estimates. Remember, technology is getting better every year, and your farm isn’t the only farm that is strengthening its 10-year APH higher year after year.

As we learned in Economics 101, it’s both supply and demand that impacts price. China is the world’s biggest soybean purchaser, and their hog herd consumes a large portion of those beans. The good news is hog profit markets have improved dramatically in the last 12 months, implying greater soybean demand.

China has been taking advantage of these margins, capitalizing on the lowest soybean prices in four years and has amassed its largest supply in over two decades. Ask yourself, “Why would China be building supplies?” Is it simply bargain buying? Is it because hog margins are more profitable? Or is it because the upcoming U.S. election could have a significant impact on their ability to purchase soybeans stateside? Like a grizzly bear before hibernation, this writer believes China could be stockpiling to ‘survive the winter’ until they can feast on Brazilian beans in February.

We will remember 2024 as one of the toughest years in decades for U.S. farmers as record high input prices, high(er) interest rates, and poor commodity prices deteriorated profit margins across the country.

November 2025 soybean prices are still well over $10.50, more than 50 cents higher than November 2024. While a myriad of things will undoubtedly change commodity prices in the short term, the long-term risk is a little clearer. Technology is constantly improving, and the world is catching up with us. If you’re not thinking about 2025, you might as well be churning your butter.

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