After more than 35 years at the University of Missouri, it is time for me to turn the reins over to other researchers at Mizzou to provide economic analysis of cattle markets.

But my retirement from Mizzou allows me to reflect on the cattle industry and highlight the many positives that have allowed cattle prices to hit record-high levels in 2024.

Today, the cattle industry looks very different from when I started my career at MU. Many of the changes experienced have benefited the industry's long-term growth. The industry will need to continue to innovate to maintain and grow in the future. Here are some significant changes that have unfolded over the past three decades.

The supply side of the cattle industry has changed dramatically. The industry will continue to need fewer cows to produce a given level of beef production as productivity continues to improve.

Putting on the pounds

USDA projects that annual 2024 beef production will be 26.8 billion pounds with a beginning beef cow herd of 28.2 million head. In 2000, beef production totaled 26.9 billion pounds, with a beginning beef cow herd of 33.6 million head.

One of my first days on the job, I was asked the question about how much carcasses could grow and still fit into the box. Over the years, the answer remains: Industry finds ways to increase the box size to fit much larger carcasses.

Technology has played a crucial role in the changes the cattle industry has experienced. Animal scientists are providing new tools for cattle producers to increase the volume of beef produced and the quality of beef being produced today.

Given the short cattle supplies today, all cattle are valuable. Perhaps when cattle supplies increase in the future, those animals with unknown genetics will have a lesser value than those with known genetics.

Desire for beef strong

The demand side of the picture is the biggest win for the cattle industry over my career.

When I ask an audience today what they will go out to eat to celebrate, the quick reply of steak shows that the industry's focus on putting quality beef in front of consumers has grown demand in ways few predicted.

Weak beef demand dominated the headlines at the start of my career, and there was much concern about the industry's future in the early 1990s. The fact that beef demand has remained strong despite the record retail beef prices consumers face today is a testament to the strength of beef demand.

Export demand is also important to the growth of the U.S. cattle industry.

In 1990, U.S. beef exports totaled 1 billion pounds. USDA is projecting nearly 3 billion pounds of U.S. beef exports for 2024. Future growth in export demand will be needed when the cattle industry expands.

Parting thoughts

This article gives me one last chance to look forward to the future of the U.S. cattle industry. Although there will be volatility in the days ahead, cattle prices may move even higher in the coming months.

When cow herd rebuilding occurs, it will reduce beef supplies in the short run and put upward pressure on cattle prices.

Cattle producers have price-risk management tools today to help reduce the volatility in cattle prices that were unavailable just a few years ago. USDA's Livestock Risk Protection is one of many tools available that provide easier downside risk protection for many cattlemen today.

At some point in the future, higher profitability will cause beef cow inventory to expand. That growth could be smaller and less pronounced, resulting in the beef cow inventory not returning to the 31.6 million head peak in 2019.

Seeing the many changes in the cattle industry over my career has been amazing. I can't wait to see the changes that will unfold over the next three decades.

Brown is a retired livestock economist with the University of Missouri. He grew up on a diversified farm in northwest Missouri.