The November elections set the stage for some significant changes in Washington, D.C., in 2025, and those potential changes include agricultural policy. Although we appear destined to carry over the farm bill debate from 2024 to 2025, there will be several additional issues on the radar for agriculture and several new faces and new perspectives that create plenty of uncertainty for now.

The election results surprised many pundits, not just in who won the various races but in the fact that one party gained control of the House, the Senate and the White House for the new year. When Congress is split in terms of party control of the House and Senate, it is often lamented that relatively little gets done, but at least in that scenario, the outlook is a predictable status quo.

With Republicans holding the House and taking over the Senate and White House, they will control all three corners of policy development in D.C., suggesting a more substantial policy agenda than may otherwise be feasible. The administrative priorities and Cabinet nominees announced thus far would support that premise, although a razor-thin majority in the House and a less-than-filibuster-proof majority in the Senate will likely temper the policy discussion.

Leadership at the top

Related:Ag secretary nominee has long history with Trump

In late November, President-elect Donald Trump announced Brooke Rollins as his nominee for secretary of agriculture. Her nomination surprised most in agricultural circles as someone from outside the traditional ag leadership, but it was consistent with Trump’s other picks in terms of ties and loyalty. Rollins’ background in the previous Trump administration, and her leadership in a conservative think tank since, help frame some of the expectations of what she thinks and will prioritize as secretary of agriculture. The additional nominations to come for assistant secretary and undersecretary roles in the USDA will help frame the incoming administration’s directions for ag policy, but there may remain much for her to learn about agriculture and much for agricultural leaders to learn about her.

In Congress, the Republican leadership for agriculture carries over, with Rep. Glenn Thompson holding on to the House Agriculture Committee gavel and Sen. John Boozman moving up from ranking member to chair of the Senate Ag Committee with the Republican takeover. The Democratic side of the committees will see changes. Sen. Amy Klobuchar takes over for retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but now only inherits the role of ranking member instead of chair. In the House, there is a formal race for the ranking member role, as there are announced challengers to Rep. David Scott after months of concern among Democrats over Scott’s health and leadership as ranking member in the last session of Congress.

Related:A look at farm bill safety net

The issues

Although the incoming ag leadership is still taking shape, the list of ag policy issues is already long for the new year. First on the list is the overdue farm bill, but there are other issues, ranging from trade to taxes and more, that could have as big or even bigger effects on agriculture as the specific policy issues to be settled within the farm bill debate.

The farm bill debate lingered throughout 2024 as the House Agriculture Committee passed a bipartisan version; but the Senate saw nothing formal until Stabenow finally released farm bill language in November after the election, something that was too little, too late to help the process along.

The same major issues that hamstrung farm bill development through 2023 and 2024 are still present, with a continuing debate over farm program support levels, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program spending, conservation spending for climate practices and secretarial discretion over spending Commodity Credit Corp. (CCC) funds. There also are calls for emergency hurricane and ag disaster relief as well as potential economic relief given that farm program enhancements pushed by some ag groups have not materialized yet with no new farm bill.

As of late November, the most likely scenario was an end-of-year package tied up with continuing appropriations that provided a simple one-year extension of the farm bill again, along with emergency funding for hurricane and ag disaster assistance and potentially economic assistance. If so, that sets the stage for a renewed farm bill debate in 2025 that could move quickly with Republican control in both chambers of Congress. If it doesn’t move quickly, it will be more prone to increased challenges of budget costs and calls for significant government reforms, as well as other significant issues fighting for the congressional calendar.

Trade and taxes

Trade is another key issue, as Trump has promised a trade policy agenda that champions import tariffs to challenge foreign trade practices, address border security concerns, generate federal revenue and increase negotiating leverage. Most economists fear the economic losses and conflicts that arise from such a strategy, but the incoming administration has rallied staunch advocates for their approach. Agriculture and other business sectors are left to hope that the approach provides more negotiating leverage and, ultimately, trade agreements with foreign countries than it does trade conflict and export losses.

The same approach during the first Trump administration led to substantial export losses for agriculture before it ultimately provided some success with new agreements with important trade partners. During that period, ag producers were partially compensated for the losses with billions of dollars of trade assistance implemented by Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue from CCC funding. This time could be different, in part because the farm bill debate has specifically targeted that same secretarial discretion over CCC funding as a place to restrict spending authority and save money.

Although the farm bill and trade policy may be attracting ag headlines at present, there are many other policy issues on the horizon that could affect agriculture. Before the election, there was a great deal of uncertainty about the future of tax policy, energy and climate policy, labor and immigration policy, and basic regulatory policy, among other issues. Now that the election is over, there may be some idea of the general direction and tenor of policy proposals in the new year, although the fate of any efforts remains uncertain.

Tax policy seems likely to swallow up much of the calendar during 2025 as lawmakers debate the future of expiring tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Energy and climate policy could swing back from some of the more progressive priorities and incentives of recent major spending bills, although there will remain champions for renewable fuels and sustainable aviation fuel, electric vehicles, climate emissions regulations and climate-friendly practices.

Labor and immigration issues were paramount during the campaign and appear to be a priority for all policy discussions, including the trade policy strategy mentioned above. Broader regulatory issues also are in play, as the Supreme Court ruling against the Chevron doctrine in 2024 lays the foundation for a pullback on Executive Branch regulatory reach and, by extension, the scope of the federal bureaucracy.

Whatever the topic, a great deal of policy uncertainty remains for agriculture headed into the new year. Ag producers and stakeholders will need to manage for the uncertainty and engage in the policy process itself, ensuring that policymakers understand the issues and the potential effects of the complex issues and policy choices ahead.