As the 2024 harvest approaches, it's crucial to consider several marketing strategies before the combines start rolling. While this year presents unique challenges and opportunities, many factors remain consistent with previous years.

Here’s a checklist to help you evaluate and optimize your approach for your operation:

Decide how many bushels need to move this fall

The most pressing issue is deciding how many bushels you need to move. If we anticipate a higher yield, it's essential to gauge how much needs to be moved and start forming an immediate plan. If you have a strong relationship with your local elevator, discuss your space requirements with them now so they’re aware of how much grain you might bring in this fall.

Evaluate selling versus storing

This decision is equally important and closely tied to the first point. For grain destined for town, you either decide now or risk having the decision made for you later.

I aim to minimize costs like drying and storage. While each year is different, store and ignore didn’t pan out in the past. I'd instead eliminate these costs, sell now, and reown with March calls, maintaining upside potential that is typically cheaper than storage. This strategy allows you to establish a floor, take cash when needed, and lock in basis.

Locking in basis is particularly important if you’re in an area with the potential for a large crop. In such cases, basis could weaken significantly within 30 to 60 days. Securing sales now also helps ensure you can deliver grain when elevators are tight on space, as some may only accept sold grain when they get close to plugging. This is an excellent time to have that conversation with your local merchandiser.

Pencil out the cost of carry and interest costs

This point varies by operation and will likely change over the next few months. If you’re filling bins, calculate whether it’s better to store grain and sell for a deferred month to capture carry or move grain between December and March to have cash on hand to pay down debt.

July 25 futures are approximately 34 cents higher than December futures. Is capturing that 34 cents worth storing grain and paying interest for the next 6 or 7 months? Or does it make more sense to capture the 19-cent carry from December to March, deliver the grain, have cash to pay down debt, and stay long on paper? This is a fluid situation, as spreads and borrowing costs will likely change, but it remains an important consideration.

Consider late fall marketing decisions

Be mindful of potential market factors in October and November. The upcoming election could significantly impact the agricultural landscape, depending on the outcome. We may see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction post-election. If you’re concerned about how this might affect your bottom line, consider being hedged before the election.

Additionally, keep an eye on South American planting timelines. Last year, soybean prices briefly rallied past $14 due to delayed planting in Brazil. Awareness of planting progress in South America can present good hedging opportunities, similar to the seasonality we observe during our planting window.

Stay safe and reach out for help

2024 has been a challenging year for marketing, which can weigh heavily on your mental health. Remember, you’re not alone. Please speak up and reach out if you need assistance.

Above all, stay safe this fall. I’ll leave you with a quote: “Live as though you’ll die tomorrow, but farm as though you’ll live forever.”

I wish you a successful 2024 harvest!

Contact Advance Trading at (800) 747-9021 or visit www.advance-trading.com.

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to the following disclosures:

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.