With the 2024 harvest underway, it’s time to visit my seven celebrity producers to find a path to sell corn and soybeans at a profit. 

Our data roundup from 34 years of tracking these producers generates a lot of numbers. What can we take from these numbers as we consider writing a postharvest marketing plan for the 2024 crop? 

Here are key questions my celebrity producers help address:  

Should I have a postharvest marketing plan?

Barney Binless is our benchmark for comparison — he simply sells grain at harvest. Any student of cash corn and soybean prices knows that over the years, prices are often lower at harvest and higher in late spring or early summer (the 2023-24 crop year is an exception). Barney’s average price is lower than every other player except Hank Holder. It’s possible to improve on Barney’s harvest price, but don’t follow Hank.  

Does it pay to hold unpriced grain after harvest?

May Sellers and Hank are using the most common of all postharvest marketing strategies — holding unpriced grain in storage. They use the same strategy, but their results are dramatically different. May is beating Hank by about 48 cents per bushel in corn and 99 cents per bushel in soybeans. The difference is timing. May knows that prices are often higher in late spring and early summer, and that’s when she makes her sale. Hank is our eternal optimist, waiting for one more rally, but his odds of success are poor.  

Related:How much are we leaving in the field?

There are good reasons why many producers store unpriced grain at harvest. They avoid low harvest prices, defer income to another tax year, and gain efficiencies in harvesting and drying costs.  

But take a tip from May and price your grain by the end of June. Final results for the 2023-24 crop year are pending, but it looks like May will beat Hank again, by about 65 cents per bushel in corn and $1.50 per bushel in soybeans. 

What’s the incentive for storage?

Sally Sellthecarry and Earl Eitheror make a tactical marketing choice at harvest, based on carrying charges. If the carry in the market is greater than 140% of interest costs, Sally and Earl will both store grain on-farm and sell the July contract. They unwind the hedge at the end of May, by buying back the July contract and selling grain held in storage.  

Their strategies differ if carrying charges are small or negative. If the incentive for storage is lacking, Sally follows the lead of Barney and sells her grain at harvest.  

Earl makes a different choice. He thinks, “A smaller carry or inverse indicates smaller grain supplies or strong demand — that sounds like a bull market. I think I will follow my friend May and hold unpriced grain until late spring.”  

Related:Market looks to the Southern Hemisphere

Large carrying charges are common in the corn market but uncommon in soybeans. Sally’s performance reflects the difference. In corn, when she often sold a large carry, she returned a modest advantage to Barney’s harvest price. In soybeans, where large carries are rare, she usually sold at the harvest price. Sally’s approach is risk-averse — only once did she get a price less than the harvest price.  

Which brings us to Earl, who makes a choice to follow Sally or May, depending on carrying charges at harvest. In corn, Earl’s average price is 4 cents less than May’s, but his performance is much more consistent. Compared to May, he is more likely to deliver a price higher than the harvest price and much less likely to get less than the harvest price. Their difference is less pronounced in soybeans where the lack of large carry means they were doing the same thing in all but three years.  

Do options add value in postharvest marketing?

Peter Paperfarmer has no on-farm storage. He re-owns harvest sales with the purchase of July call options. In corn, Peter’s average price is just 3 cents better than the harvest price, based on a handful of spectacular years. His performance in soybeans is good, but not as good as May’s or Earl’s.  

Related:Is there more pop in corn prices?

Covered Cal is a seller of call options, an unconventional approach to hedging. Such sellers have a limited gain and hedge, defined by the premium received for selling calls. He beat the harvest price in 26 of 34 years in corn and soybeans.  

Peter and Cal have two different options strategies for two different markets. Peter is hoping for a big bull market to add value to his call options. Cal is looking for a sideways market — years without a pronounced price trend. I am not a big user of options, but they have their moments. Be selective. 

Historical performance 

My characters represent distinct postharvest marketing plans. What can we learn from their actions? 

Meet the crew: 

Barney Binless

May Sellers

Sally Sellthecarry

Earl Eitheror

Justin Price

Aunt Tilly

Terry Timer

Hank Holder

Margery the Fortune Teller

Rocky Bottom

Peter Paperfarmer

Darla Discipline

Ed Usset is a grain market economist at the University of Minnesota, and author of the book “Grain Marketing Is Simple (It’s Just Not Easy).” Reach Usset at [email protected].

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.