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How much U.S. corn will Mexico buy?

Ag Marketing IQ: Expect strong purchase levels until late January. What happens after President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in depends on agricultural policy in the U.S. and Mexico.

Cory Bratland, Hedging strategist

November 8, 2024

3 Min Read
Corn and Mexico flag
Getty Images/JJ Gouin

As we move toward incoming President Donald Trump’s second term, two questions top a long list for agriculture:

  • Will the president’s policies impact corn demand?

  • Will there be a trade war?

The underlying concern in both questions is: Will corn demand suffer?

Let’s look at Mexico. Mexico is the largest consumer of U.S. corn, buying over 40% of our annual exports. So far, year-to-date, Mexico has purchased about 20.7% more corn this year through the end of October when compared to a year-ago level.

Over a five-year average of corn purchases, Mexico has increased U.S. corn purchases by 59.2%. Many are suggesting Mexico is “front loading” corn purchases in anticipation of a potential trade war with the U.S.

Mexico has a new president as well and there is a push for Mexico to make its food production and distribution look more like it did in the 1980s, when they consumed more tortillas, beans, instant coffee and hot chocolate.

However, the front loading of U.S. corn this year could be more to do with Mexico’s policies and not a Trump presidency. With a potential new agricultural plan in Mexico, one concern is that Mexico could put a ban on GMO corn from the U.S.

Last year, we saw Mexico buy the most corn ever from the U.S. They started buying early on and that trend never changed. They started out the year strong and the country kept buying U.S. corn all year. In my mind, it is more of a value play for Mexico in securing cheap food for their people.

Related:Dear USDA: Why?

Is Mexico just buying cheap?

With December corn futures trading around $4.20-$4.25 – the cheapest in four years – they see good value. However, if Mexico enacts a GMO ban on U.S. corn, that could cause demand from Mexico to slow.

I like to tell everyone to watch what foreign countries do versus what they say they might do. For now, until probably late January 2025, we could see U.S. corn demand stay pretty strong.

Corn total commitments for Mexico

Have questions? Feel free to contact me directly at 605-657-1978 or anyone on the AgMarket.Net team at 844-4AG-MRKT.

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Related:Hook up the grain trucks!

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About the Author

Cory Bratland

Hedging strategist, AgMarket.Net

Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on the family farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Cory attended school at Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in Ag Business Management at Lake Area Technical College in Watertown, S.D.

Cory began his career in the agriculture field working as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc., Cory held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, Cory got licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker.

In 2007, Cory left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker and started Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2008, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office and in 2010 became Kluis Commodities’ chief grain strategist. In 2024, Cory joined the AgMarket.Net team as a hedging specialist.

Cory lives near Willow Lake, S.D. with his wife Erica and three children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans and alfalfa. He also runs a cow-calf operation.

In Cory’s spare time he enjoys hunting, fishing, riding UTVs and cooking food on his smokers.

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