What will acreage look like in 2025? It’s a question we find ourselves asking every year around this time. While we often try to predict acreage based on current price dynamics, the market has a way of surprising us by the time planters roll. Right now, the focus is on corn: just how large could corn acreage get in 2025?

Currently, the 2025 corn/soybean ratio sits at approximately 2.26—a level that traditionally signals a shift toward more corn acres. With last week’s sharp soybean sell-off, speculation is growing that corn acres could significantly increase due to favorable price signals and the enduring adage: “Farmers love to plant corn.”

This raises three important questions:

While past performance isn’t always a reliable guide, it’s worth examining historical parallels to inform our perspective.

Historical data: How does 2025 compare?

While we’ve seen more extreme corn/soybean ratios, the current 2.26 ratio ranks among the lower levels seen over the last decade. Typically, we observe more dramatic swings in the ratio later in the year—during the summer—when acreage and supply dynamics come into sharper focus.

Related:Will soybean prices crash from a clash of fundamentals?

What makes 2025 particularly unusual is the direction of the trend. Historically, similar ratios have emerged when the market is starting at a lower baseline and trending higher. For example, South American soybean harvests and weather concerns often push soybean prices higher relative to corn. In 2025, we see the opposite: The ratio hovered around 2.4 earlier but has since broken lower. Every year has its quirks, right?

A recent parallel: 2023

Fortunately, we don’t have to look far for a meaningful comparison. In 2023, the corn/soybean ratio slightly favored corn early in the year—though not as strongly as in 2025. But by June, the ratio shifted dramatically, spiking above 2.8. Do you remember what happened next?

We planted a record amount of corn acres.

That USDA acreage report in 2023 caught many by surprise, and the market adjusted quickly. In hindsight, it was a clear example of farmers responding to market signals: when the market incentivized planting corn, they followed through. Could 2025 unfold in a similar way? Only time will tell.

Key takeaways

If you’re making acreage decisions now based on current market conditions, it’s critical to protect your position and hedge your potential production. The corn/soybean ratio provides valuable context, but as history shows, markets can shift rapidly. For now, keep an eye on the numbers, stay adaptable and make sure your strategy is as resilient as your crops.

Related:Accept this gift from USDA

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