From August to November, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will survey American farmers at the beginning of each month, requesting information on their acreage harvested and estimated yield for fall crops. The first survey-based estimates for every crop in each state and nationwide will be released on Aug. 12.

The most recent crop progress report released by NASS indicates that the 2024-25 soybean crop continues to develop quickly in almost all the 18 primary producing states in the country.

Adequate weather in much of the Corn Belt also has improved crop conditions to slightly above the five-year average (3.72 versus 3.71) and higher than four of the last five years. (Figure 1). Soybeans rated as good and excellent reached 68% this year, compared to 60% last year, and well above the 54% five-year average.

Figure 1. U.S. Soybean Crop Condition Index (2019-2024)

According to Figure 1, soybean crop conditions initially deteriorated after ratings were first reported in early June. A modest recovery was seen in early July before crop conditions edged slightly lower, stabilized, then improved again this week.

The potential impact of warmer and drier-than-normal weather on pod fill during August in the western Corn Belt is uncertain.

Given such advanced progress and much of the crop in excellent condition, the estimates from the surveys will undoubtedly be one of the highlights of the Aug. 12 report. Information regarding world supply and demand, especially from South America and China, will also be closely watched. However, history shows the potential for a significant change in U.S. soybean yield from the initial forecast to the final total.

History reveals years when soybean crop condition ratings were extremely high in late July and early August, crash under late-season dry weather and/or pests and ultimately delivered disastrous yields. Alternatively, we have years when an average-looking soybean crop rebounded to generate higher-than-expected yields due to ideal weather in late summer.

Figure 2. Change in U.S. Average Soybean Yield: Final versus August Forecast

Figure 2 shows the change in the U.S. national average soybean yield from the August report to the final estimate.

With harvested acreage currently pegged at 85.3 million acres, the 2024 crop could—on average—increase 179 mbu or decrease 128 mbu from the August forecast.

For additional comparison, the following chart shows the trade range estimates for soybean yields in August WASDE reports over the last five years, the average trade estimates (squares), the August WASDE yield (circles), and the final yield for each year (X). During this period, the trade guess was below USDA’s August yield in three years and below the final yield only in 2021.

Figure 3. August estimated and final yields

Since late May, the November soybean futures contract has lost more than 10% of its value and closed at its lowest settlement on Aug. 1: $10.16½. During this period, the funds have significantly increased their combined net short position in futures and options at the CME Group.

Before harvest, weather patterns could potentially change the current downward trend in soybean prices in the coming weeks. Other economic factors (interest rates, exchange rates, etc.), politics (the result of elections), and international supply and demand conditions may also affect commodity prices until the USDA releases its final yield number for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Contact Advance Trading at (800) 747-9021 or visit www.advance-trading.com.

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to the following disclosures:

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Farm Progress.