A few weeks ago, I wrote about getting ready for the timing of a potential Christmas rally for grain markets.

What’s happened

Focusing on corn in the article, I pointed out that over the past decade, the average rally for March corn futures from late November into mid- to- late December, was 33 cents. As of this writing, so far March 2025 corn futures have enjoyed a near 26-cent rally.

The recent price support in the corn market is thanks to strong export and ethanol demand, along with fund buying. The December WASDE report also added to the supportive tone. In the report, the USDA increased corn demand, and the increase was a bit more than expected. U.S. corn exports were increased by 150 million bushels and corn usage for ethanol was increased by 50 million bushels. This increase in demand brought down ending stocks to 1.738 billion bushels.

But where to from here?

Just months ago, U.S. ending stocks for the 2024-25 season were pegged at 2 billion bushels, which pushed corn prices down to around $4 due to the perception of large supply. The low-price spurred demand. At $4, corn was cheap and a good value for both domestic and global end users.

The stronger demand then pushed prices higher, and now March 2025 corn futures are now trading near $4.50. Can corn prices trade higher from here and into month-end? Or will the Christmas corn price rally come to a withering halt with profit taking and a price correction lower?

Related:Will soybean prices crash from a clash of fundamentals?

From a marketing perspective

Recent conversations with clients indicate this recent rally spurred a flurry of cash sales, with the March 2025 corn futures approaching the $4.50 price point.

Rightfully so. As I indicated before, $4.50 is a big price hurdle to climb over. Year-end taxes and bills are due, and producers needed to make those cash sales to generate income. For prices to climb above $4.50, new bullish news is needed quickly.

Supplies currently are reduced due to demand picking up. Looking forward, however, the industry and farmers already are indicating they plan to plant more corn acres in 2025. Additional acres will add supply to the market, and likely keep rallies in check.

Are you wondering what to do with corn in your bin? Or even contemplating if you should be forward contracting for the upcoming 2025-26 crop year? Let’s make an action plan.

Here are four steps you can consider now.

Get cash target price orders working now with your elevator to sell additional corn in your bin. Based on what we know right now, even with the recent reduction in ending stocks, nearby corn futures may struggle to rally higher than $4.50 in the short term. The average “Christmas rally” for March corn futures over the past decade has been 33 cents, and we already have achieved nearly 26 cents of that. Also, many producers are likely considering making cash sales in the coming days and weeks, and that may weaken local cash basis levels as a flurry of supply hits local grain elevators.

Related:Accept this gift from USDA

Consider a re-ownership strategy. Decide whether it makes sense for you to “re-own on paper” any corn sales that were made in recent weeks. What if the weather turns poor in South America? The funds keep buying? Or China quickly agrees to trade deals under the new administration? Should friendly fundamental news occur, that might push corn above $4.50.

As of this writing, March 2025 corn futures are trading near $4.50. Should prices rally up to the $4.75 price area (the next potential technical resistance level above $4.50), do you want to try to capture some of that upside potential?

If so, consider a re-ownership strategy with call options, that might work best for you regarding your budget and risk tolerance. Do not neglect placing exit orders immediately as well. Should prices rally to the $4.75 area, they may only be there for 5 minutes of one trading day, and if you have profit objective orders working, you’ll have better odds of having your order filled.

Related:Is $5 corn back on the table?

Get cash target price orders. Thinking ahead? Going to plant more corn acres next spring? The industry is starting to think about that, too. December 2025 corn futures are trading near $4.45 as of this writing, with $4.50 and $4.60 as heavy overhead resistance on daily charts. Consider getting cash target price orders working now with your elevator to sell a percentage of your new crop 2025-26 corn.

Something to consider is that in years when corn carryout has been 1.7 billion bushels or larger, the new crop December corn futures struggled to climb above the $4.50 price point. Think back to 2014-2019.

(Insert continuous Dec chart here)

Those were years with abundant corn carryout levels, and low corn prices.

Protect unpriced bushels. Should you choose to not make cash sales, consider now how or if you’re going to protect unpriced bushels. What if the weather in South America remains wonderful and demand starts to slip as global end users eye buying their next needs from South America instead?

Work with your market advisor now, to create a plan to potentially buy puts based on your risk, including budget and time value needed. Also, consider protecting not only the 2024 crop prices, but 2025 crop prices as well.

Prepare yourself

Keep in mind, the bullish news of stronger demand may already be priced into the corn market. For prices to continue higher from here in the days ahead, a combination of new export demand, poor weather in South America, and some friendly biofuel mandate decree may likely be needed to spur higher prices.

Corn prices are at an important crossroads. Be disciplined and be ready. And remember prices often come crashing down as fast (or faster) than when they rallied, leaving you with mere days or minutes to capture the rally.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.