Betting markets on this year’s presidential election are the latest wrinkle traders are using to decipher the connection between politics and profit. But if history is a guide, farmers should hedge their bets on the outcome, because there’s no clear winner for corn and soybeans at the ballot box.

The only sure thing appears to be uncertainty about the outcome: Risk appears higher now than it was 60 years ago when Mr. John F. Kennedy took over the White House as the first president born in the 20^th century.

Republicans and Democrats evenly split the 16 ballots since 1960, with neither party holding the presidency for more than three consecutive four-year terms, which each did once. Nearby corn and soybean futures rose a little on average in presidential election years when Democrats captured the White House, falling when a “red” wave brought in a GOP administration.

Yet, while grain prices and elections are related, none of these connections are statistically significant. That is, they are too small to rule out associations that are merely chance – a roll of the dice. Soybeans come closer than corn to hurdling this bar, but still fall short. So, while you can blame Washington for lots of stuff, lousy prices have many masters.

Consider these election returns:

Related:Navigate the right path forward for your farm

Risk remains elevated

Every election brings with it the potential for price disruption – remember the Cuban missile crisis, Russian grain embargo, NAFTA dissolution and China tariffs? Presidents also can get impeached by the House of Representatives, though none have been convicted and removed from office by the Senate.

Uncertainty over prices during these election years also tends to be higher than average. Overall volatility appears to be on the rise – it surged in 2004, when the Iraq invasion triggered a wave of insurgent violence. Unpredictable futures were a feature through while Mr. Barack Obama was president, and again in 2020 after the tariff debate led by then-President Donald Trump. This uncertainty during this year’s cycle remains near or above levels seen during the 2016 election.

Related:War, politics and crop inputs

Volatility on the rise

But do war and peace really influence crop prices?

Trying to filter out election noise from the many other factors affecting markets isn’t easy.

Even the 2004 uncertainty had a weather connection. Though corn and soybeans both posted then-record yields that year, 2003 crops were another story. Corn yields were decent, but soybeans suffered from late season dryness, keeping prices variable through most of 2004.

Still, price movements in the week following the elections in tumultuous years has reached some extreme levels. Corn lost 5.4% of its value in the week after the 1988 vote, with losses topping 9% in 2012. Soybeans dropped 6.2% and 7.1% in those years.

Which trend will 2024 follow?

With barely a month until election day, we won’t have to wait long to find out.