Production came in at 15.147 billion bushels, which is 23 million bushels above the average trade estimate.

The ending stocks estimate for the 2024-25 crop of 2.073 billion was 46 mbu below the trade average.

The USDA reduced harvested area by 728,000 acres to 82.72 million acres. This was somewhat compensated by a 2 bushel-per-acre increase in the national average yield to 183.0, or about 0.8 bpa above the trade average.

Old crop ending stocks dropped by 10 million to 1.867 bbu. This was 9 mbu fewer than the trade average on a combination of a 15 mbu reduction in non-ethanol food, seed and industrial use (FSI) and a 25 mbu increase in exports to 2.250 bbu.

Carryout for 2024-25 declined 24 mbu to 2.073 bbu due to a 47 mbu larger crop, 15 mbu less non-ethanol FSI use, and a 75 mbu higher export forecast to 2.3 bbu.

Average producer prices were trimmed a dime to $4.20 per bushel, despite the 24 mbu smaller carry-out.

Production increased 154 mbu to 4.589 billion bushels on a million-acre rise in the harvested area and a 1.2 bpa national yield increase to 53.2 bpa.

Old crop ending stocks were unchanged, although the Trade expected a 5 mbu increase to 350 mbu.

The 2024-25 ending stocks figure rose 125 mbu to 560 mbu.

A 154 mbu production increase was only partially offset by a 25 mbu higher export forecast and a 4 mbu increase in residual use. The production figure was 117 mbu above the trade average, and ending 2024-25 stocks, 93 million more.

The producer price estimate dropped 30 cents from last month to $10.80 per bushel.

The updated survey-based estimate of U.S. other spring production of 0.544 bbu was well below the average trade estimate of 0.581 bbu.

Hard red spring wheat production is estimated at 0.499 bbu, which is 6% below last month due primarily to a reduction in harvested acreage of 555,000 compared to July.

Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.361 bbu compared to the average trade guess of 1.346 bbu. That’s up 9.1% from a year ago.

The decline in spring wheat production offset a fractional increase in food use, lowering U.S. ending stocks by 28 mbu compared to July at 0.828 bbu.