Approximately 70% of the U.S. cowherd calves in the spring. As referenced in previous Cow-calf Corner articles, the fall months, when we wean spring born calves and pregnancy check our cowherd, is usually the time we see the majority of cull cows going to market. Accordingly, the fall and winter months during the last quarter of the year are typically the lowest prices for cull cows. 

Slaughter rate

Overall in 2024, the rate of cow slaughter is down. While cow slaughter has picked up somewhat since August (as expected), it remains sharply lower than recent years. Cull cow prices have seen their typical break as we have moved through the fall. However, cull cow prices remain well above 2023 levels and record high for the fourth quarter. As compared to recent years, reduced cow slaughter has supported cull cow values even through seasonal fall markets. Tight slaughter cow supplies and strong prices are expected to be the pattern through the winter months and into 2025.   

Bred heifer supply

From a cow inventory standpoint, the lower rate of cow culling/cow slaughter this year has not been enough to overcome the tight supply of bred heifers at the start of 2024. As a result, the U.S. beef cow inventory is most likely to be smaller to at the beginning of 2025.

Related:Keys to profitable cattle marketing

Reference: CattleFax Update November 1, 2024