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Deere projects lower 2025 profit with farmers still not spending

The agriculture equipment company's 2025 net income will be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion - below the $5.83 billion average of analyst estimates.

Bloomberg, Content provider

November 21, 2024

2 Min Read
John Deere sign
Bloomberg

By Michael Hirtzer

Shares of Deere & Co. jumped to the highest level in more than a year as investors in the biggest farm machinery maker looked past a disappointing profit outlook amid speculation that the slump in agriculture is poised to turn.

The maker of iconic green and yellow tractors reported fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations, but said net income for fiscal 2025 will be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion. That’s below the $5.83 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The full-year guidance “is ugly, but expectations were already very low,” according to Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli. In one positive sign, North American inventories declined, showing that “destocking is taking hold,” Baird analysts including Mircea Dobre said in a note. 

The company’s shares rose as much as 8.2%, the most intraday since February 2023.

The sector has been suffering as sales have dropped from peak levels of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crop prices soaring and gave farmers more to spend on gear. Rivals CNH Industrial NV and AGCO Corp. earlier this month reduced their sales forecasts as results missed estimates. Companies have been cutting production to deal with the high dealer inventories.

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Traders and executives have been looking for signs of an end to the industry downturn. Farmer sentiment bounced in October on optimism that economic conditions will improve, according to the Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer. CNH, whose brands include red Case IH and blue New Holland tractors, earlier this month said 2025 could be the bottom of the cycle.

Excessive amounts of used machinery continue to drag on demand for new equipment. Cory Reed, president of worldwide agriculture and turf at Deere, told investors on an earnings call that the situation is improving, though “it’s too early to call an inflection point on used equipment.”

Deere also said it was too soon to know any impacts from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies. He has threatened tariffs on any products Deere makes in Mexico and sells in the U.S. — a potential wild card even as farmer sentiment recently has been rising.

Chief Executive Officer John May said on the call that more than 75% of what Deere sells in the U.S. is assembled domestically. “So we feel really positioned well,” he said.

Deere has been shifting into high-tech machines such as autonomous plows and a sprayer that automatically detects weeds. However, farmers who recently harvested crops with grain and oilseed prices trading near four-year lows have been putting off machinery purchases after many upgraded in 2022.

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US sales of agriculture tractors continued their decline in October, falling about 14% from the previous year, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers said in a report.

Deere expects sales in its largest production and precision agriculture segment to be down about 15% in fiscal 2025, while prices are seen up 1%. 

© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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