Ongoing negotiation attempts between Canada’s government and two railroad unions came to a head on Thursday that led to a short-lived worker strike of more than 9,000 union members who were vying for better pay and working conditions.
“The Canadian government on Thursday announced that it would ask the country's industrial relations board to issue a back-to-work order that should come soon,” according to recent reporting by Reuters.
The move helps the country dodge a major bullet, according to the Grain Growers of Canada lobby, which estimated that work stoppages would create farmer losses of $50 million per day for more than 65,000 farmers due to lost sales, lower grain quality and downward shifts in market confidence.
“The total shutdown of Canada's two national railways is an unprecedented crisis for the grain industry,” said Kyle Larkin, executive director of the Grain Growers of Canada. “With work stoppages at both CN and CPKC, our entire supply chain is at risk. This disruption is happening at the worst possible moment, during the start of harvest season, when our farmers are most dependent on our rail network.”
Industry experts have kept close tabs on negotiations. Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX, admitted that both sides realized how horrible it would be if a work stoppage occurred.
“For potash specifically, a short-term stoppage would not likely impact [prices], but a multiple week one would,” he noted.
Mark Milam, senior editor of fertilizers for ICIS, tended to agree when he shared his thoughts in the initial hours of the short-lived strike.
“With the strike now underway the fertilizer industry participants are trying to be optimistic about its duration,” he said on Thursday. “It should not have an immediate impact on domestic prices as we are still at a period of summer decreased buying but that will change in next few weeks as harvest advances and this strike could become a factor in price direction if it was to carry into September.”
Meantime, there will still be some short-term fallout for yesterday’s actions. A spokesperson with the Canadian National Railway said it may take a week or more for the company to catch up on delayed shipments.
Moving forward, Canada’s Labor Ministry ordered a third party to mediate a negotiation and extend terms of the current agreements until new ones are signed. However, union representatives indicated earlier on Friday that they would challenge the constitutionality of this governmental decision.
The situation remains in flux for now.
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