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Corn+Soybean Digest

Brock Online Notes

Record November Soybean Crush

The Census Bureau has pegged the November soybean crush at 149.1 million bushels, which set a new record for that month and exceeded trade expectations.

The Census Bureau crush figure was down from the 150.4 million bushels recorded in October, but was up 4.2% from the year-earlier level of 143.1 million bushels.

The report showed processor stocks of soymeal rising slightly during November, but 13.7% below a year earlier. Mill stocks of soy oil, however, surged 11.2% from a month earlier, reaching 26.6% above a year earlier.

The strong crush is more evidence of strong soybean demand and provides some evidence that processors have had a tough time buying soybeans. Mill stocks of soybeans were put at 136.6 million bushels as of the end of November, down 18% from a year earlier.

Safras Ups Brazil Soybean Estimate

The Brazilian market consultant, Safras & Mercados, recently raised its estimate of Brazil's 2001-2002 soybean crop to 43 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 42.3 million.

The new forecast is also up from USDA's current Brazilian crop estimate of 41.5 million tons. The new estimate would represent a 12% increase over this past year's crop of 38.4 million tons, Safras said.

Safras said the higher forecast was based partly on an increase in productivity to an expected 2,750 kg/hectare (about 40.4 bu/acre)versus 2,742 kg/hectare (40.3 bu/acre) last season.

The continued appeal of soybeans as a crop due to weakness in the Brazilian real versus the dollar also contributed to the higher forecast. Safras now sees Brazilian soybean plantings up 11% at 15.6 million hectares (39 million acres).

Editors note: Richard Brock, Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at

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