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Corn+Soybean Digest

Brock Online Notes

Corn, Soybean Crops Seen Up

Grain analysts expect next Thursday’s USDA Crop Production Report to show the U.S. corn and soybean crops above the preliminary projections offered by USDA in its July supply/demand update.

Trade estimates of corn production average 10.784 billion bushels in a range from 10.622-11.007 billion bushels, according to a survey of 21 analysts released on Friday by Dow Jones News Service.

A USDA crop number of 10.8 billion bushels or more would likely put more pressure on prices as that would pretty much guarantee a carryout above the 2002-2003 level of 1.087 billion bushels despite strong demand. A USDA number under 10.5 billion bushels should be clearly bullish for prices from current levels.

Trade estimates of soybean production average 2.965 billion bushels in a range from 2.881-3.042 billion bushels.

Any USDA soybean number above 3 billion bushels should be bearish for prices as that would virtually assure that the 2004-2005 carryout would be the highest in five years.

A USDA survey estimate below the July projection of 2.94 billion bushels could result in a price bounce into harvest, while a number below 2.9 billion bushels should be clearly bullish.

Editors note: Richard Brock, The Corn and Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at www.brockreport.com.

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